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Primeira Liga

Referee: André Narciso

Benfica

S U S S T

3–0

Full-time

Nacional

T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 23/24 matches

Win Ø 52%

74%

29%

Points per game

2,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

61%

38%

Both score Ø 41%

43%

38%

Average goals

3,1

2,3

Scored

2,3

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

4,34 xG 2,40

56% Possession 44%

18 Shots 12

12 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 9

5 Corners 3

5 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 11

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 2. · Nacional 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	24	17	5	2	+43	+35.6	56
2	Benfica	23	17	2	4	+35	+31.5	53
3	Porto	24	15	5	4	+30	+23.1	50
4	Sp Braga	24	14	5	5	+18	+14.9	47
5	Santa Clara	24	12	3	9	+1	+6.7	39
6	Casa Pia	24	10	6	8	+1	-5.7	36
7	Guimaraes	24	8	11	5	+6	+9.2	35
8	Estoril	24	9	7	8	-7	-17.5	34
9	Famalicao	24	7	10	7	+1	-5.5	31
10	Rio Ave	24	7	8	9	-12	-14.3	29
11	Arouca	25	7	7	11	-14	-7.5	28
12	Moreirense	24	7	6	11	-7	+0.0	27
13	Nacional	24	7	5	12	-9	-4.9	26
14	Gil Vicente	24	5	8	11	-12	-9.0	23
15	Estrela	25	5	8	12	-15	-12.5	23
16	AVS	25	4	11	10	-15	-12.4	23
17	Farense	24	3	7	14	-19	-16.6	16
18	Boavista	24	3	6	15	-25	-15.1	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	12	11	0	1	+30	+23.1	33
2	Sp Lisbon	12	10	1	1	+20	+16.0	31
3	Porto	12	9	3	0	+23	+22.0	30
4	Guimaraes	12	6	5	1	+7	+7.4	23
5	Casa Pia	12	6	4	2	+6	+2.4	22
6	Santa Clara	12	7	1	4	+1	+9.3	22
7	Sp Braga	12	6	3	3	+9	+14.0	21
8	Rio Ave	12	5	6	1	+2	+0.4	21
9	Estoril	12	6	3	3	+0	-6.1	21
10	Moreirense	12	5	5	2	+2	-1.3	20
11	Nacional	12	6	2	4	-1	-1.3	20
12	Gil Vicente	11	4	4	3	+4	+0.8	16
13	Estrela	13	4	4	5	-3	-5.0	16
14	Famalicao	12	3	6	3	+0	+0.1	15
15	AVS	13	3	5	5	-6	-7.8	14
16	Arouca	12	3	4	5	-6	-5.8	13
17	Farense	12	2	1	9	-12	-4.8	7
18	Boavista	12	1	3	8	-13	-3.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Braga	12	8	2	2	+9	+0.9	26
2	Sp Lisbon	12	7	4	1	+23	+19.6	25
3	Porto	12	6	2	4	+7	+1.1	20
4	Benfica	11	6	2	3	+5	+8.4	20
5	Santa Clara	12	5	2	5	+0	-2.7	17
6	Famalicao	12	4	4	4	+1	-5.6	16
7	Arouca	13	4	3	6	-8	-1.7	15
8	Casa Pia	12	4	2	6	-5	-8.1	14
9	Estoril	12	3	4	5	-7	-11.4	13
10	Guimaraes	12	2	6	4	-1	+1.8	12
11	Farense	12	1	6	5	-7	-11.8	9
12	AVS	12	1	6	5	-9	-4.6	9
13	Boavista	12	2	3	7	-12	-11.3	9
14	Rio Ave	12	2	2	8	-14	-14.6	8
15	Moreirense	12	2	1	9	-9	+1.3	7
16	Estrela	12	1	4	7	-12	-7.6	7
17	Gil Vicente	13	1	4	8	-16	-9.8	7
18	Nacional	12	1	3	8	-8	-3.7	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.