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Primeira Liga

Referee: Gustavo Correia

Guimaraes

T S U S S

0–3

Full-time

Benfica

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Benfica

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,2

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,7

4,5

Scored

1,5

3,3

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 59%

41%

76%

Points per game

1,7

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

41%

69%

Both score Ø 45%

41%

48%

Average goals

2,4

3,3

Scored

1,4

2,4

Conceded

1,0

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+1,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,59 xG 1,99

58% Possession 42%

17 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 3

4 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Guimaraes 5. · Benfica 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	30	22	6	2	+53	+45.3	72
2	Benfica	29	22	3	4	+46	+42.9	69
3	Sp Braga	30	19	6	5	+26	+16.3	63
4	Porto	30	19	5	6	+31	+23.7	62
5	Guimaraes	29	12	12	5	+12	+10.5	48
6	Santa Clara	30	14	5	11	+0	+9.8	47
7	Famalicao	30	11	10	9	+6	-6.5	43
8	Casa Pia	30	11	8	11	-3	-9.3	41
9	Estoril	30	10	9	11	-10	-15.4	39
10	Moreirense	30	9	8	13	-9	-4.1	35
11	Rio Ave	30	8	9	13	-15	-17.4	33
12	Arouca	30	8	9	13	-15	-7.1	33
13	Nacional	30	9	5	16	-14	-9.3	32
14	Gil Vicente	30	7	8	15	-13	-10.3	29
15	Estrela	30	6	8	16	-21	-15.6	26
16	AVS	30	4	12	14	-26	-18.7	24
17	Farense	30	4	9	17	-21	-18.1	21
18	Boavista	30	5	6	19	-27	-16.7	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	15	13	1	1	+34	+27.1	40
2	Sp Lisbon	15	12	2	1	+24	+21.8	38
3	Porto	15	11	3	1	+23	+21.1	36
4	Sp Braga	15	9	3	3	+14	+14.9	30
5	Guimaraes	14	8	5	1	+11	+7.4	29
6	Santa Clara	15	8	2	5	+1	+10.7	26
7	Casa Pia	15	7	4	4	+4	-0.9	25
8	Famalicao	15	6	6	3	+7	+4.3	24
9	Moreirense	15	6	6	3	+1	-1.7	24
10	Nacional	15	7	2	6	-3	-2.7	23
11	Rio Ave	15	5	7	3	-1	-4.5	22
12	Estoril	15	6	4	5	-3	-5.8	22
13	Arouca	15	4	5	6	-6	-3.8	17
14	Gil Vicente	15	4	4	7	-2	-1.5	16
15	Estrela	15	4	4	7	-7	-6.6	16
16	AVS	15	3	6	6	-9	-10.2	15
17	Farense	15	2	2	11	-14	-4.1	8
18	Boavista	15	1	3	11	-17	-3.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	15	10	4	1	+29	+23.5	34
2	Sp Braga	15	10	3	2	+12	+1.4	33
3	Benfica	14	9	2	3	+12	+15.8	29
4	Porto	15	8	2	5	+8	+2.7	26
5	Santa Clara	15	6	3	6	-1	-0.9	21
6	Guimaraes	15	4	7	4	+1	+3.1	19
7	Famalicao	15	5	4	6	-1	-10.8	19
8	Estoril	15	4	5	6	-7	-9.7	17
9	Casa Pia	15	4	4	7	-7	-8.4	16
10	Arouca	15	4	4	7	-9	-3.2	16
11	Boavista	15	4	3	8	-10	-12.8	15
12	Farense	15	2	7	6	-7	-14.0	13
13	Gil Vicente	15	3	4	8	-11	-8.8	13
14	Moreirense	15	3	2	10	-10	-2.4	11
15	Rio Ave	15	3	2	10	-14	-12.9	11
16	Estrela	15	2	4	9	-14	-9.0	10
17	Nacional	15	2	3	10	-11	-6.6	9
18	AVS	15	1	6	8	-17	-8.5	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.