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Champions League
Referee: D Siebert
Chelsea
U T T S T
1–0
Full-time
Benfica
U T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Benfica
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,2
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 83%
83%
83%
Average goals
3,3
3,0
Scored
1,5
1,8
Conceded
1,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 1/5 matches
Win Ø 30%
0%
60%
Points per game
0,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
100%
20%
Both score Ø 60%
100%
20%
Average goals
4,0
2,0
Scored
1,0
1,4
Conceded
3,0
0,6
Goal diff per game
-2,0
+0,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,93 xG 0,85
56% Possession 44%
8 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 3
1 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 5
1 Offside 2
13 Free kicks against 14
4 Yellow cards 5
1 Red cards 0

Match report

Chelsea Benfica
0–1 R. Rios ⚽
own goal
18′
34′
🟨 Enzo Barrenechea
Half-time 0–1
Enzo Fernández 🟨
46′
Facundo Buonanotte 🟨
46′
49′
🟨 Richard Ríos
Estêvão 🔁
↦ F. Buonanotte
54′
J. Gittens 🔁
↦ A. Garnacho
61′
Joao Pedro 🔁
↦ T. George
61′
João Pedro 🟨
62′
63′
🟨 Fredrik Aursnes
73′
🔁 T. Araujo
↦ A. Silva
77′
🔁 F. Ivanovic
↦ G. Sudakov
77′
🔁 L. Barreiro
↦ R. Rios
77′
🔁 A. Schjelderup
↦ D. Lukebakio
R. James 🔁
↦ M. Gusto
80′
J. Acheampong 🔁
↦ B. Badiashile
80′
83′
🟨 Nicolás Otamendi
88′
🟨 Tomás Araújo
89′
🔁 H. Araujo
↦ F. Aursnes
João Pedro 🟨
96′
João Pedro 🟥
96′
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Chelsea

4-2-3-1
1 R. Sanchez G
27 M. Gusto D
23 T. Chalobah D
5 B. Badiashile D
3 M. Cucurella D
8 E. Fernandez M
25 M. Caicedo M
7 P. Neto M
40 F. Buonanotte M
49 A. Garnacho M
32 T. George F
Bench (11)
12 F. Jorgensen
50 M. Merrick
11 J. Gittens
20 Joao Pedro
21 J. Hato
24 R. James
34 J. Acheampong
38 M. Guiu
41 Estêvão
45 R. Lavia
46 R. Walsh

Coach: Liam Rosenior

Benfica

4-3-3
1 A. Trubin G
17 A. Dedic D
4 A. Silva D
30 N. Otamendi D
26 S. Dahl D
20 R. Rios M
5 E. Barrenechea M
8 F. Aursnes M
11 D. Lukebakio F
14 V. Pavlidis F
10 G. Sudakov F
Bench (12)
24 S. Soares
50 D. Ferreira
3 R. Obrador
9 F. Ivanovic
18 L. Barreiro
21 A. Schjelderup
39 H. Araujo
44 T. Araujo
64 G. Oliveira
68 J. Veloso
84 J. Rego
86 D. Prioste

Coach: Jose Mourinho

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Siebert · 158 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.