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Primeira Liga

Referee: Marcio Torres

Gil Vicente

U S S S T

2–0

Full-time

Estrela

U U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Gil Vicente Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

1,7

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 36%

57%

14%

Points per game

1,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 22%

14%

29%

Both score Ø 22%

14%

29%

Average goals

1,7

Scored

1,1

0,9

Conceded

0,6

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,36 xG 0,98

43% Possession 57%

15 Shots 15

7 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 7

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Gil Vicente 5. · Estrela 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	7	7	0	0	+18	+11.6	21
2	Sp Lisbon	7	6	0	1	+15	+13.1	18
3	Benfica	7	5	2	0	+9	+7.9	17
4	Moreirense	7	5	0	2	+2	-2.8	15
5	Gil Vicente	7	4	1	2	+4	+2.9	13
6	Famalicao	7	3	3	1	+4	+2.0	12
7	Sp Braga	7	2	3	2	+4	+2.6	9
8	Santa Clara	7	2	2	3	-3	+2.0	8
9	Guimaraes	7	2	2	3	-4	-2.1	8
10	Casa Pia	8	2	2	4	-5	-4.6	8
11	Arouca	7	2	2	3	-9	-8.4	8
12	Estrela	7	1	4	2	+0	+0.8	7
13	Alverca	7	2	1	4	-3	-2.1	7
14	Nacional	7	2	1	4	-4	-1.4	7
15	Estoril	8	1	3	4	-3	-5.4	6
16	Rio Ave	7	0	5	2	-5	-6.5	5
17	Tondela	7	1	2	4	-7	-3.6	5
18	AVS	7	0	1	6	-13	-6.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Moreirense	4	4	0	0	+6	+1.1	12
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+8	+6.4	9
3	Benfica	4	2	2	0	+4	+5.4	8
4	Sp Lisbon	3	2	0	1	+8	+6.5	6
5	Gil Vicente	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.9	6
6	Alverca	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.4	6
7	Famalicao	4	1	2	1	+2	+0.4	5
8	Guimaraes	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.7	5
9	Sp Braga	4	1	1	2	+1	+2.4	4
10	Estrela	4	1	1	2	+0	+1.1	4
11	Estoril	4	1	1	2	+0	-1.9	4
12	Santa Clara	4	1	1	2	-1	+2.4	4
13	Arouca	4	1	1	2	-4	-4.5	4
14	Tondela	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.8	2
15	Rio Ave	3	0	2	1	-3	-2.3	2
16	Casa Pia	4	0	2	2	-4	-4.4	2
17	Nacional	3	0	0	3	-6	-0.4	0
18	AVS	3	0	0	3	-6	-1.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	4	4	0	0	+10	+5.3	12
2	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+7	+6.6	12
3	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+5	+2.5	9
4	Gil Vicente	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.0	7
5	Nacional	4	2	1	1	+2	-1.0	7
6	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.5	7
7	Casa Pia	4	2	0	2	-1	-0.2	6
8	Sp Braga	3	1	2	0	+3	+0.2	5
9	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	-2	-0.4	4
10	Arouca	3	1	1	1	-5	-3.9	4
11	Estrela	3	0	3	0	+0	-0.3	3
12	Rio Ave	4	0	3	1	-2	-4.2	3
13	Moreirense	3	1	0	2	-4	-3.9	3
14	Guimaraes	4	1	0	3	-5	-2.8	3
15	Tondela	4	1	0	3	-6	-4.4	3
16	Estoril	4	0	2	2	-3	-3.5	2
17	Alverca	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.5	1
18	AVS	4	0	1	3	-7	-4.2	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.