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Primeira Liga

Referee: Iancu Vasilica

Estrela

S T T S T

1–0

Full-time

Rio Ave

S U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Rio Ave

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,5

3,3

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

2,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,8

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 25%

21%

29%

Points per game

0,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 43%

43%

Average goals

2,6

2,9

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,70 xG 0,82

37% Possession 63%

8 Shots 19

4 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 10

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 6

1 Offside 4

17 Free kicks against 16

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estrela 16. · Rio Ave 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	15	12	2	1	+29	+17.9	38
2	Sp Lisbon	15	12	1	2	+33	+29.1	37
3	Porto	15	12	1	2	+27	+17.5	37
4	Sp Braga	15	8	4	3	+11	+12.7	28
5	Santa Clara	15	9	0	6	+1	+7.8	27
6	Guimaraes	15	6	5	4	+4	+4.1	23
7	Casa Pia	15	5	5	5	-2	-2.5	20
8	Moreirense	15	6	2	7	-3	+0.6	20
9	Famalicao	15	4	7	4	+1	-4.9	19
10	Gil Vicente	15	4	5	6	-7	-8.8	17
11	Rio Ave	14	4	4	6	-10	-11.1	16
12	Estoril	15	3	5	7	-12	-16.3	14
13	AVS	15	2	7	6	-11	-7.5	13
14	Nacional	15	3	4	8	-11	-2.0	13
15	Boavista	15	2	6	7	-9	-2.7	12
16	Estrela	14	3	3	8	-12	-9.2	12
17	Farense	15	3	3	9	-12	-12.9	12
18	Arouca	15	3	2	10	-17	-11.7	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	8	8	0	0	+23	+12.3	24
2	Porto	8	8	0	0	+19	+16.8	24
3	Sp Lisbon	7	6	0	1	+13	+12.5	18
4	Santa Clara	8	6	0	2	+2	+7.7	18
5	Guimaraes	7	4	2	1	+4	+3.7	14
6	Moreirense	7	4	2	1	+2	-2.1	14
7	Rio Ave	7	3	4	0	+3	+1.0	13
8	Gil Vicente	7	3	3	1	+5	-0.9	12
9	Sp Braga	8	3	3	2	+4	+9.5	12
10	Casa Pia	8	3	3	2	+2	+1.8	12
11	Estrela	7	3	2	2	+0	-1.8	11
12	Estoril	8	3	2	3	-3	-7.2	11
13	Famalicao	8	2	4	2	-1	-0.4	10
14	Nacional	7	3	1	3	-5	-2.2	10
15	AVS	8	2	3	3	-5	-5.7	9
16	Arouca	7	2	1	4	-5	-6.0	7
17	Farense	7	2	0	5	-7	-3.4	6
18	Boavista	7	0	3	4	-8	-1.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	8	6	1	1	+20	+16.5	19
2	Sp Braga	7	5	1	1	+7	+3.2	16
3	Benfica	7	4	2	1	+6	+5.6	14
4	Porto	7	4	1	2	+8	+0.7	13
5	Famalicao	7	2	3	2	+2	-4.6	9
6	Guimaraes	8	2	3	3	+0	+0.4	9
7	Boavista	8	2	3	3	-1	-1.7	9
8	Santa Clara	7	3	0	4	-1	+0.1	9
9	Casa Pia	7	2	2	3	-4	-4.3	8
10	Moreirense	8	2	0	6	-5	+2.7	6
11	Farense	8	1	3	4	-5	-9.5	6
12	Gil Vicente	8	1	2	5	-12	-7.9	5
13	AVS	7	0	4	3	-6	-1.8	4
14	Arouca	8	1	1	6	-12	-5.7	4
15	Nacional	8	0	3	5	-6	+0.2	3
16	Estoril	7	0	3	4	-9	-9.2	3
17	Rio Ave	7	1	0	6	-13	-12.1	3
18	Estrela	7	0	1	6	-12	-7.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.