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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Chelsea

U T S S T

0–1

Full-time

Newcastle

S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 92%

83%

100%

Average goals

4,5

3,7

Scored

2,7

1,7

Conceded

1,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 42%

45%

38%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

66%

Both score Ø 68%

69%

66%

Average goals

3,0

2,9

Scored

1,8

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,39 xG 1,41

67% Possession 33%

22 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 5

9 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 1

9 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 5. · Newcastle 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	30	20	7	3	+37	+28.8	67
2	Man City	29	18	6	5	+32	+20.7	60
3	Man United	29	14	9	6	+11	+14.7	51
4	Aston Villa	29	15	6	8	+5	-7.0	51
5	Chelsea	29	13	9	7	+19	+17.7	48
6	Liverpool	29	14	6	9	+9	+14.1	48
7	Brentford	29	13	5	11	+4	+5.8	44
8	Everton	29	12	7	10	+1	-6.5	43
9	Bournemouth	30	9	14	7	-2	+3.5	41
10	Brighton	30	10	10	10	+3	+3.6	40
11	Fulham	29	12	4	13	-3	-5.0	40
12	Sunderland	30	10	10	10	-5	-16.1	40
13	Newcastle	29	11	6	12	-1	+7.9	39
14	Crystal Palace	29	10	8	11	-2	+6.8	38
15	Leeds	29	7	10	12	-11	-2.1	31
16	Tottenham	29	7	8	14	-7	-13.3	29
17	Nott'm Forest	29	7	7	15	-15	-10.3	28
18	West Ham	29	7	7	15	-19	-11.6	28
19	Burnley	30	4	8	18	-26	-33.4	20
20	Wolves	30	3	7	20	-30	-18.3	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	15	11	3	1	+25	+14.4	36
2	Arsenal	14	11	2	1	+24	+15.8	35
3	Man United	14	9	3	2	+11	+13.8	30
4	Aston Villa	15	9	2	4	+6	-0.0	29
5	Liverpool	14	8	3	3	+10	+9.3	27
6	Sunderland	15	7	5	3	+8	-4.2	26
7	Fulham	15	8	2	5	+6	+0.0	26
8	Newcastle	15	8	2	5	+4	+9.3	26
9	Brentford	14	7	4	3	+9	+8.6	25
10	Bournemouth	15	6	7	2	+6	+11.6	25
11	Brighton	15	6	6	3	+6	+4.5	24
12	Chelsea	14	6	5	3	+7	+8.9	23
13	Leeds	15	6	4	5	+2	+6.6	22
14	Everton	15	5	4	6	-1	-1.1	19
15	Crystal Palace	14	3	6	5	-4	+8.4	15
16	Nott'm Forest	14	3	4	7	-6	+0.7	13
17	West Ham	14	3	3	8	-10	-1.8	12
18	Wolves	16	3	3	10	-14	-8.3	12
19	Burnley	15	2	5	8	-8	-13.1	11
20	Tottenham	15	2	4	9	-7	-4.4	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	16	9	5	2	+13	+13.0	32
2	Chelsea	15	7	4	4	+12	+8.8	25
3	Man City	14	7	3	4	+7	+6.3	24
4	Everton	14	7	3	4	+2	-5.4	24
5	Crystal Palace	15	7	2	6	+2	-1.6	23
6	Aston Villa	14	6	4	4	-1	-7.0	22
7	Man United	15	5	6	4	+0	+0.9	21
8	Liverpool	15	6	3	6	-1	+4.8	21
9	Tottenham	14	5	4	5	+0	-8.9	19
10	Brentford	15	6	1	8	-5	-2.9	19
11	Brighton	15	4	4	7	-3	-0.9	16
12	Bournemouth	15	3	7	5	-8	-8.1	16
13	West Ham	15	4	4	7	-9	-9.8	16
14	Nott'm Forest	15	4	3	8	-9	-11.0	15
15	Fulham	14	4	2	8	-9	-5.0	14
16	Sunderland	15	3	5	7	-13	-11.9	14
17	Newcastle	14	3	4	7	-5	-1.3	13
18	Leeds	14	1	6	7	-13	-8.7	9
19	Burnley	15	2	3	10	-18	-20.3	9
20	Wolves	14	0	4	10	-16	-10.0	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.