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2. Bundesliga

Referee: R Kampka

Holstein Kiel

T T T U T

2–3

Full-time

Nurnberg

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Holstein Kiel Nurnberg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

2,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 28%

24%

32%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

48%

56%

Both score Ø 64%

64%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

3,28 xG 1,22

62% Possession 38%

21 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 1

4 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Holstein Kiel 17. · Nurnberg 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	25	15	5	5	+14	+11.4	50
2	Darmstadt	26	13	10	3	+19	+7.7	49
3	Elversberg	26	14	6	6	+16	+2.9	48
4	Paderborn	25	14	5	6	+13	+14.2	47
5	Hannover	25	13	6	6	+11	+12.0	45
6	Hertha	25	11	7	7	+6	-4.8	40
7	Kaiserslautern	25	11	4	10	+4	-2.1	37
8	Karlsruhe	25	9	7	9	-7	-15.4	34
9	Bochum	25	8	8	9	+3	+6.3	32
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	25	9	4	12	-10	-0.6	31
11	Nurnberg	25	8	6	11	-4	-0.3	30
12	Greuther Furth	26	8	5	13	-17	-9.9	29
13	Bielefeld	25	7	6	12	+2	-0.5	27
14	Dresden	25	6	8	11	-6	-1.6	26
15	Preußen Münster	25	6	8	11	-8	-10.0	26
16	Braunschweig	25	7	5	13	-15	-1.8	26
17	Holstein Kiel	25	6	7	12	-8	-14.0	25
18	Magdeburg	26	7	3	16	-13	+6.3	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Darmstadt	13	10	3	0	+19	+9.9	33
2	Schalke 04	12	9	2	1	+9	+6.2	29
3	Paderborn	13	8	2	3	+7	+9.4	26
4	Kaiserslautern	13	8	1	4	+10	+0.3	25
5	Elversberg	12	7	4	1	+10	+1.8	25
6	Bochum	13	6	4	3	+6	+9.8	22
7	Nurnberg	13	6	4	3	+5	+0.2	22
8	Karlsruhe	12	6	3	3	+2	-5.1	21
9	Hannover	12	6	2	4	+3	+9.5	20
10	Hertha	13	5	4	4	-1	-1.8	19
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	13	5	3	5	-4	-0.4	18
12	Bielefeld	12	5	2	5	+7	+7.7	17
13	Greuther Furth	13	4	4	5	-7	-5.3	16
14	Holstein Kiel	12	4	3	5	+1	-2.8	15
15	Preußen Münster	13	3	6	4	-1	-3.3	15
16	Braunschweig	13	4	3	6	-8	+2.7	15
17	Dresden	12	3	3	6	-1	+3.7	12
18	Magdeburg	13	2	2	9	-10	+6.2	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hannover	13	7	4	2	+8	+2.6	25
2	Elversberg	14	7	2	5	+6	+1.2	23
3	Hertha	12	6	3	3	+7	-3.0	21
4	Paderborn	12	6	3	3	+6	+4.7	21
5	Schalke 04	13	6	3	4	+5	+5.2	21
6	Darmstadt	13	3	7	3	+0	-2.2	16
7	Magdeburg	13	5	1	7	-3	+0.1	16
8	Dresden	13	3	5	5	-5	-5.3	14
9	Fortuna Dusseldorf	12	4	1	7	-6	-0.2	13
10	Karlsruhe	13	3	4	6	-9	-10.3	13
11	Greuther Furth	13	4	1	8	-10	-4.7	13
12	Kaiserslautern	12	3	3	6	-6	-2.4	12
13	Braunschweig	12	3	2	7	-7	-4.4	11
14	Preußen Münster	12	3	2	7	-7	-6.7	11
15	Bochum	12	2	4	6	-3	-3.5	10
16	Bielefeld	13	2	4	7	-5	-8.2	10
17	Holstein Kiel	13	2	4	7	-9	-11.3	10
18	Nurnberg	12	2	2	8	-9	-0.4	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.