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Premier League

Referee: P Bankes

Newcastle

S S T S T

2–1

Full-time

Man United

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

4,5

3,0

Scored

2,8

2,0

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 43%

36%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

64%

57%

Both score Ø 68%

64%

71%

Average goals

2,9

3,1

Scored

1,4

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,48 xG 1,48

45% Possession 55%

12 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 4

15 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 13. · Man United 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	30	20	7	3	+37	+28.8	67
2	Man City	29	18	6	5	+32	+20.7	60
3	Man United	28	14	9	5	+12	+15.7	51
4	Aston Villa	29	15	6	8	+5	-7.0	51
5	Chelsea	29	13	9	7	+19	+17.7	48
6	Liverpool	29	14	6	9	+9	+14.1	48
7	Brentford	29	13	5	11	+4	+5.8	44
8	Everton	29	12	7	10	+1	-6.5	43
9	Bournemouth	29	9	13	7	-2	+2.3	40
10	Fulham	29	12	4	13	-3	-5.0	40
11	Sunderland	29	10	10	9	-4	-15.3	40
12	Brighton	29	9	10	10	+2	+2.8	37
13	Newcastle	28	10	6	12	-2	+6.9	36
14	Crystal Palace	28	9	8	11	-4	+6.1	35
15	Leeds	29	7	10	12	-11	-2.1	31
16	Tottenham	28	7	8	13	-5	-12.6	29
17	Nott'm Forest	29	7	7	15	-15	-10.3	28
18	West Ham	29	7	7	15	-19	-11.6	28
19	Burnley	29	4	7	18	-26	-32.2	19
20	Wolves	30	3	7	20	-30	-18.3	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	15	11	3	1	+25	+14.4	36
2	Arsenal	14	11	2	1	+24	+15.8	35
3	Man United	14	9	3	2	+11	+13.8	30
4	Aston Villa	15	9	2	4	+6	-0.0	29
5	Liverpool	14	8	3	3	+10	+9.3	27
6	Sunderland	14	7	5	2	+9	-3.4	26
7	Fulham	15	8	2	5	+6	+0.0	26
8	Brentford	14	7	4	3	+9	+8.6	25
9	Bournemouth	15	6	7	2	+6	+11.6	25
10	Brighton	15	6	6	3	+6	+4.5	24
11	Chelsea	14	6	5	3	+7	+8.9	23
12	Newcastle	14	7	2	5	+3	+8.3	23
13	Leeds	15	6	4	5	+2	+6.6	22
14	Everton	15	5	4	6	-1	-1.1	19
15	Crystal Palace	14	3	6	5	-4	+8.4	15
16	Nott'm Forest	14	3	4	7	-6	+0.7	13
17	West Ham	14	3	3	8	-10	-1.8	12
18	Wolves	16	3	3	10	-14	-8.3	12
19	Tottenham	14	2	4	8	-5	-3.7	10
20	Burnley	14	2	4	8	-8	-11.9	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	16	9	5	2	+13	+13.0	32
2	Chelsea	15	7	4	4	+12	+8.8	25
3	Man City	14	7	3	4	+7	+6.3	24
4	Everton	14	7	3	4	+2	-5.4	24
5	Aston Villa	14	6	4	4	-1	-7.0	22
6	Man United	14	5	6	3	+1	+1.9	21
7	Liverpool	15	6	3	6	-1	+4.8	21
8	Crystal Palace	14	6	2	6	+0	-2.3	20
9	Tottenham	14	5	4	5	+0	-8.9	19
10	Brentford	15	6	1	8	-5	-2.9	19
11	West Ham	15	4	4	7	-9	-9.8	16
12	Bournemouth	14	3	6	5	-8	-9.3	15
13	Nott'm Forest	15	4	3	8	-9	-11.0	15
14	Fulham	14	4	2	8	-9	-5.0	14
15	Sunderland	15	3	5	7	-13	-11.9	14
16	Brighton	14	3	4	7	-4	-1.7	13
17	Newcastle	14	3	4	7	-5	-1.3	13
18	Leeds	14	1	6	7	-13	-8.7	9
19	Burnley	15	2	3	10	-18	-20.3	9
20	Wolves	14	0	4	10	-16	-10.0	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.