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Champions League
Referee: D Massa
Newcastle
T S S S T
3–2
Full-time
Qarabag
T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Qarabag
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
50%
17%
Points per game
1,5
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
100%
83%
Both score Ø 84%
100%
67%
Average goals
4,3
5,0
Scored
2,5
1,3
Conceded
1,8
3,7
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-2,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 9/15 matches
Win Ø 55%
56%
53%
Points per game
1,9
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 76%
78%
73%
Both score Ø 58%
56%
60%
Average goals
3,4
4,1
Scored
2,6
1,9
Conceded
0,9
2,1
Goal diff per game
+1,7
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,66 xG 1,30
65% Possession 35%
19 Shots 13
8 Shots on target 6
7 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 5
9 Corners 6
0 Offside 2
10 Free kicks against 4
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

18. Feb -26 Qarabag – Newcastle 1–6

Match report

Newcastle Qarabag
1–0 S. Tonali ⚽
W. Osula
4′
2–0 Joelinton ⚽
H. Barnes
6′
Half-time 2–1
51′
⚽ C. Duran 2–1
J. Montiel
3–1 S. Botman ⚽
K. Trippier
52′
L. Hall 🔁
↦ K. Trippier
53′
J. Willock 🔁
↦ S. Botman
53′
A. Gordon 🔁
↦ Joelinton
54′
57′
⚽ E. Cafarquliyev 3–2
M. Jankovic
62′
🔁 Kady Borges
↦ J. Montiel
69′
🔁 O. Kashchuk
↦ C. Duran
Y. Wissa 🔁
↦ W. Osula
73′
79′
🔁 E. Addai
↦ A. Zoubir
79′
🔁 M. Qurbanly
↦ M. Jankovic
79′
🔁 T. Bayramov
↦ E. Cafarquliyev
80′
🟨 Pedro Bicalho
L. Shahar 🔁
↦ J. Murphy
87′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Newcastle

4-3-3
32 A. Ramsdale G
2 K. Trippier D
4 S. Botman D
33 D. Burn D
37 A. Murphy D
7 Joelinton M
8 S. Tonali M
27 N. Woltemade M
23 J. Murphy F
18 W. Osula F
11 H. Barnes F
Bench (10)
1 N. Pope
26 J. Ruddy
58 A. Harris
3 L. Hall
9 Y. Wissa
10 A. Gordon
20 A. Elanga
28 J. Willock
61 L. Shahar
62 S. Neave

Coach: Eddie Howe

Qarabag

3-4-2-1
99 M. Kochalski G
2 Matheus Silva D
55 B. Huseynov D
81 K. Medina D
18 Dani Bolt M
35 Pedro Bicalho M
8 M. Jankovic M
44 E. Cafarquliyev M
9 J. Montiel F
10 A. Zoubir
17 C. Duran F
Bench (10)
89 A. Ramazanov
97 F. Buntic
11 E. Addai
15 Leandro Andrade
20 Kady Borges
21 O. Kashchuk
22 M. Qurbanly
27 T. Bayramov
30 A. Huseynov
32 H. Cabrayilzada

Coach: Qurban Qurbanov

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Massa · 154 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.