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Premier League
Referee: A Madley
Arsenal
S S S S U
2–0
Full-time
Everton
S T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Everton
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,3
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
3,0
2,7
Scored
2,0
1,5
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Premier League · 30/29 matches
Win Ø 54%
67%
41%
Points per game
2,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 44%
53%
34%
Both score Ø 48%
50%
45%
Average goals
2,7
2,3
Scored
2,0
1,2
Conceded
0,7
1,1
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,70 xG 1,05
65% Possession 35%
25 Shots 9
7 Shots on target 3
9 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
8 Corners 3
2 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 12
0 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Arsenal 1. · Everton 8.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Arsenal 30 20 7 3 +37 +28.8 67
2 Man City 29 18 6 5 +32 +20.7 60
3 Man United 29 14 9 6 +11 +14.7 51
4 Aston Villa 29 15 6 8 +5 -7.0 51
5 Chelsea 29 13 9 7 +19 +17.7 48
6 Liverpool 29 14 6 9 +9 +14.1 48
7 Brentford 29 13 5 11 +4 +5.8 44
8 Everton 29 12 7 10 +1 -6.5 43
9 Bournemouth 30 9 14 7 -2 +3.5 41
10 Brighton 30 10 10 10 +3 +3.6 40
11 Fulham 29 12 4 13 -3 -5.0 40
12 Sunderland 30 10 10 10 -5 -16.1 40
13 Newcastle 29 11 6 12 -1 +7.9 39
14 Crystal Palace 29 10 8 11 -2 +6.8 38
15 Leeds 29 7 10 12 -11 -2.1 31
16 Tottenham 29 7 8 14 -7 -13.3 29
17 Nott'm Forest 29 7 7 15 -15 -10.3 28
18 West Ham 29 7 7 15 -19 -11.6 28
19 Burnley 30 4 8 18 -26 -33.4 20
20 Wolves 30 3 7 20 -30 -18.3 16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Arsenal Everton
C. Mosquera 🔁
↦ J. Timber
38′
Half-time 0–0
V. Gyökeres 🔁
↦ K. Havertz
61′
G. Martinelli 🔁
↦ N. Madueke
61′
69′
🔁 T. Barry
↦ Beto
P. Hincapie 🔁
↦ R. Calafiori
74′
M. Dowman 🔁
↦ M. Zubimendi
74′
86′
🔁 H. Armstrong
↦ D. McNeil
86′
🔁 M. Rohl
↦ T. Iroegbunam
1–0 V. Gyokeres
P. Hincapie
89′
2–0 M. Dowman
G. Martinelli
90′
95′
🔁 T. George
↦ I. Gueye
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Arsenal

4-2-3-1
1 D. Raya G
12 J. Timber D
2 W. Saliba D
6 Gabriel D
33 R. Calafiori D
36 M. Zubimendi M
41 D. Rice M
7 B. Saka M
10 E. Eze M
20 N. Madueke M
29 K. Havertz F
Bench (9)
13 K. Arrizabalaga
9 Gabriel Jesus
14 V. Gyökeres
4 B. White
11 G. Martinelli
5 P. Hincapie
49 M. Lewis-Skelly
3 C. Mosquera
56 M. Dowman

Coach: Mikel Arteta

Everton

4-2-3-1
1 J. Pickford G
37 J. Garner D
15 J. O'Brien D
5 M. Keane D
16 V. Mykolenko D
42 T. Iroegbunam M
27 I. Gueye M
7 D. McNeil M
22 K. Dewsbury-Hall M
10 I. Ndiaye M
9 Beto F
Bench (9)
12 M. Travers
2 N. Patterson
20 T. Dibling
19 T. George
11 T. Barry
39 A. Aznou
45 H. Armstrong
23 S. Coleman
34 M. Rohl

Coach: Leighton Baines

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,37
U
4,56
B
8,83
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,90
U2,5 ✓
1,84
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

A Madley · 167 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.