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Eredivisie

Referee: J Kooij

PSV Eindhoven

T S S T S

2–3

Full-time

Nijmegen

U U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PSV Eindhoven Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 92%

100%

83%

Average goals

3,7

3,5

Scored

2,2

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 68%

85%

50%

Points per game

2,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

85%

81%

Both score Ø 77%

73%

81%

Average goals

4,1

Scored

2,9

2,5

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,53 xG 2,09

70% Possession 30%

12 Shots 17

6 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 7

3 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match PSV Eindhoven 1. · Nijmegen 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	26	22	2	2	+44	+28.1	68
2	Feyenoord	26	15	4	7	+20	+22.2	49
3	Nijmegen	26	13	7	6	+21	+7.3	46
4	Twente	26	11	11	4	+18	+24.8	44
5	Ajax	25	10	11	4	+12	+6.0	41
6	AZ Alkmaar	26	11	6	9	+1	+14.6	39
7	Sparta Rotterdam	26	11	5	10	-10	-2.3	38
8	Heerenveen	25	10	6	9	+0	+8.8	36
9	Groningen	26	10	5	11	+2	+9.6	35
10	For Sittard	27	10	5	12	-8	-12.7	35
11	Utrecht	25	9	7	9	+7	+2.7	34
12	Zwolle	27	7	9	11	-16	-16.9	30
13	Go Ahead Eagles	26	6	11	9	-4	-15.5	29
14	Volendam	27	7	6	14	-16	-22.5	27
15	Excelsior	26	7	5	14	-17	-13.0	26
16	Telstar	26	5	9	12	-7	-11.5	24
17	NAC Breda	26	5	8	13	-14	-8.4	23
18	Heracles	26	5	3	18	-33	-21.2	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	10	2	1	+23	+15.9	32
2	Feyenoord	13	9	1	3	+13	+14.9	28
3	Nijmegen	13	8	2	3	+15	+8.8	26
4	Twente	13	7	4	2	+10	+14.8	25
5	Ajax	12	7	3	2	+11	+11.0	24
6	Volendam	14	6	4	4	+4	-3.6	22
7	For Sittard	13	6	3	4	+0	-0.3	21
8	Zwolle	13	6	3	4	+0	-0.2	21
9	Utrecht	12	6	2	4	+9	+5.4	20
10	AZ Alkmaar	12	5	5	2	+4	+9.0	20
11	Heerenveen	13	5	5	3	+2	+9.7	20
12	Sparta Rotterdam	13	5	4	4	-5	+0.2	19
13	Groningen	13	5	3	5	+6	+5.9	18
14	Go Ahead Eagles	13	4	6	3	+2	+1.9	18
15	NAC Breda	14	4	4	6	-3	+2.6	16
16	Excelsior	14	4	2	8	-5	-4.3	14
17	Heracles	13	4	2	7	-7	-6.1	14
18	Telstar	13	2	5	6	-3	-0.9	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	12	0	1	+21	+12.2	36
2	Feyenoord	13	6	3	4	+7	+7.3	21
3	Nijmegen	13	5	5	3	+6	-1.4	20
4	Twente	13	4	7	2	+8	+10.0	19
5	AZ Alkmaar	14	6	1	7	-3	+5.6	19
6	Sparta Rotterdam	13	6	1	6	-5	-2.5	19
7	Ajax	13	3	8	2	+1	-5.0	17
8	Groningen	13	5	2	6	-4	+3.7	17
9	Heerenveen	12	5	1	6	-2	-0.9	16
10	Utrecht	13	3	5	5	-2	-2.7	14
11	For Sittard	14	4	2	8	-8	-12.4	14
12	Telstar	13	3	4	6	-4	-10.6	13
13	Excelsior	12	3	3	6	-12	-8.7	12
14	Go Ahead Eagles	13	2	5	6	-6	-17.4	11
15	Zwolle	14	1	6	7	-16	-16.7	9
16	NAC Breda	12	1	4	7	-11	-11.1	7
17	Volendam	13	1	2	10	-20	-18.9	5
18	Heracles	13	1	1	11	-26	-15.2	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.