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Premier League

Referee: J Brooks

Chelsea

S U T S U

3–2

Full-time

Newcastle

S U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,3

4,5

Scored

2,0

2,3

Conceded

1,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 26/27 matches

Win Ø 41%

38%

44%

Points per game

1,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

62%

74%

Both score Ø 61%

65%

56%

Average goals

3,3

3,8

Scored

1,7

2,1

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,57 xG 0,74

45% Possession 55%

12 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

0 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 11. · Newcastle 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	28	20	4	4	+46	+37.8	64
2	Liverpool	28	19	7	2	+39	+28.8	64
3	Man City	28	19	6	3	+35	+29.9	63
4	Aston Villa	28	17	4	7	+18	+11.6	55
5	Tottenham	27	16	5	6	+20	+2.7	53
6	Man United	28	15	2	11	+0	-4.6	47
7	West Ham	28	12	7	9	-4	-11.5	43
8	Brighton	28	11	9	8	+6	+7.1	42
9	Wolves	28	12	5	11	-2	-10.3	41
10	Newcastle	27	12	4	11	+12	+3.0	40
11	Chelsea	26	10	6	10	+1	+8.9	36
12	Fulham	28	10	5	13	-4	-11.4	35
13	Bournemouth	27	8	8	11	-12	-2.5	32
14	Everton	28	8	7	13	-10	+2.6	31
15	Crystal Palace	28	7	8	13	-15	-6.9	29
16	Brentford	28	7	5	16	-12	+2.3	26
17	Nott'm Forest	28	6	6	16	-16	-7.0	24
18	Luton	27	5	6	16	-17	-23.5	21
19	Burnley	28	3	5	20	-35	-24.8	14
20	Sheffield United	28	3	5	20	-50	-32.0	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	14	11	3	0	+26	+27.2	36
2	Arsenal	14	11	2	1	+23	+22.6	35
3	Man City	14	10	4	0	+22	+15.5	34
4	Aston Villa	14	10	1	3	+16	+12.0	31
5	Tottenham	14	10	0	4	+10	+5.2	30
6	Newcastle	14	9	2	3	+18	+13.7	29
7	Brighton	14	7	6	1	+12	+8.1	27
8	Fulham	14	8	1	5	+11	+2.4	25
9	Man United	14	8	1	5	+1	+2.6	25
10	Wolves	14	7	3	4	+1	-4.7	24
11	West Ham	14	6	5	3	+3	-5.0	23
12	Chelsea	12	5	3	4	+2	+10.2	18
13	Crystal Palace	14	4	4	6	-1	+2.7	16
14	Brentford	14	4	4	6	-5	+2.5	16
15	Nott'm Forest	14	4	3	7	-2	+1.3	15
16	Bournemouth	13	3	5	5	-6	+0.7	14
17	Everton	14	3	4	7	-3	+9.0	13
18	Luton	14	3	2	9	-4	-2.7	11
19	Sheffield United	14	2	2	10	-30	-14.2	8
20	Burnley	14	1	2	11	-21	-7.0	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	14	9	2	3	+23	+15.2	29
2	Man City	14	9	2	3	+13	+14.3	29
3	Liverpool	14	8	4	2	+13	+1.6	28
4	Aston Villa	14	7	3	4	+2	-0.4	24
5	Tottenham	13	6	5	2	+10	-2.5	23
6	Man United	14	7	1	6	-1	-7.2	22
7	West Ham	14	6	2	6	-7	-6.5	20
8	Chelsea	14	5	3	6	-1	-1.3	18
9	Bournemouth	14	5	3	6	-6	-3.2	18
10	Everton	14	5	3	6	-7	-6.3	18
11	Wolves	14	5	2	7	-3	-5.6	17
12	Brighton	14	4	3	7	-6	-1.0	15
13	Crystal Palace	14	3	4	7	-14	-9.5	13
14	Newcastle	13	3	2	8	-6	-10.7	11
15	Brentford	14	3	1	10	-7	-0.2	10
16	Luton	13	2	4	7	-13	-20.7	10
17	Fulham	14	2	4	8	-15	-13.8	10
18	Nott'm Forest	14	2	3	9	-14	-8.3	9
19	Burnley	14	2	3	9	-14	-17.8	9
20	Sheffield United	14	1	3	10	-20	-17.8	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.