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Premier League

Referee: A Madley

Newcastle

U S U T S

2–2

Full-time

Chelsea

T U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 44%

38%

50%

Points per game

1,4

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

63%

56%

Both score Ø 57%

63%

50%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,3

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,31 xG 1,22

47% Possession 53%

11 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 12. · Chelsea 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	16	11	3	2	+20	+17.5	36
2	Man City	16	11	1	4	+22	+13.2	34
3	Aston Villa	16	10	3	3	+8	-4.8	33
4	Chelsea	16	8	4	4	+12	+6.5	28
5	Crystal Palace	16	7	5	4	+5	+7.9	26
6	Man United	16	7	5	4	+4	+8.8	26
7	Liverpool	16	8	2	6	+2	+6.7	26
8	Sunderland	16	7	5	4	+2	-8.0	26
9	Everton	16	7	3	6	-1	-2.9	24
10	Brighton	16	6	5	5	+2	+4.6	23
11	Tottenham	16	6	4	6	+4	-7.0	22
12	Newcastle	16	6	4	6	+1	+3.8	22
13	Bournemouth	16	5	6	5	-3	+0.2	21
14	Fulham	16	6	2	8	-3	-4.6	20
15	Brentford	16	6	2	8	-3	+1.8	20
16	Nott'm Forest	16	5	3	8	-8	-3.1	18
17	Leeds	16	4	4	8	-10	-0.9	16
18	West Ham	16	3	4	9	-13	-10.1	13
19	Burnley	16	3	1	12	-15	-18.7	10
20	Wolves	16	0	2	14	-26	-11.0	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	8	7	1	0	+17	+11.1	22
2	Man City	8	7	0	1	+16	+10.4	21
3	Aston Villa	8	6	1	1	+7	-1.4	19
4	Sunderland	8	5	3	0	+8	-0.9	18
5	Brentford	8	5	2	1	+7	+3.7	17
6	Newcastle	8	5	1	2	+4	+4.9	16
7	Liverpool	8	5	1	2	+4	+4.3	16
8	Brighton	8	4	3	1	+5	+3.1	15
9	Bournemouth	8	4	3	1	+5	+5.4	15
10	Chelsea	8	4	2	2	+5	+4.3	14
11	Man United	8	4	2	2	+4	+9.3	14
12	Everton	8	4	2	2	+2	+1.5	14
13	Fulham	8	4	1	3	+4	+0.2	13
14	Leeds	8	3	3	2	+2	+6.2	12
15	Crystal Palace	8	2	4	2	-1	+6.6	10
16	Nott'm Forest	8	3	1	4	-2	+2.9	10
17	Tottenham	8	2	2	4	+1	-0.9	8
18	Burnley	8	2	1	5	-3	-7.4	7
19	West Ham	8	2	0	6	-10	-3.8	6
20	Wolves	8	0	1	7	-14	-4.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Crystal Palace	8	5	1	2	+6	+1.3	16
2	Chelsea	8	4	2	2	+7	+2.3	14
3	Tottenham	8	4	2	2	+3	-6.2	14
4	Arsenal	8	4	2	2	+3	+6.3	14
5	Aston Villa	8	4	2	2	+1	-3.4	14
6	Man City	8	4	1	3	+6	+2.8	13
7	Man United	8	3	3	2	+0	-0.5	12
8	Liverpool	8	3	1	4	-2	+2.4	10
9	Everton	8	3	1	4	-3	-4.3	10
10	Brighton	8	2	2	4	-3	+1.4	8
11	Nott'm Forest	8	2	2	4	-6	-6.0	8
12	Sunderland	8	2	2	4	-6	-7.1	8
13	West Ham	8	1	4	3	-3	-6.3	7
14	Fulham	8	2	1	5	-7	-4.8	7
15	Newcastle	8	1	3	4	-3	-1.1	6
16	Bournemouth	8	1	3	4	-8	-5.2	6
17	Leeds	8	1	1	6	-12	-7.1	4
18	Brentford	8	1	0	7	-10	-1.8	3
19	Burnley	8	1	0	7	-12	-11.3	3
20	Wolves	8	0	1	7	-12	-6.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.