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Premier League

Referee: J Brooks

Newcastle

S S T S U

2–0

Full-time

Chelsea

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,2

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,8

2,8

Scored

2,8

2,0

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 53%

54%

51%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

66%

60%

Both score Ø 59%

54%

63%

Average goals

3,2

2,9

Scored

1,9

1,8

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,56 xG 0,69

45% Possession 55%

15 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 8

9 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Newcastle 4. · Chelsea 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	35	25	7	3	+46	+44.7	82
2	Arsenal	35	18	13	4	+33	+25.8	67
3	Man City	36	19	8	9	+24	+18.5	65
4	Newcastle	35	19	6	10	+21	+16.9	63
5	Chelsea	35	18	9	8	+21	+21.6	63
6	Aston Villa	36	18	9	9	+7	+8.4	63
7	Nott'm Forest	35	18	7	10	+12	-4.6	61
8	Brentford	36	16	7	13	+10	+1.7	55
9	Brighton	36	14	13	9	+3	+4.1	55
10	Bournemouth	36	14	11	11	+12	+14.6	53
11	Fulham	36	14	9	13	+1	+4.9	51
12	Crystal Palace	35	11	13	11	-4	+8.7	46
13	Everton	36	9	15	12	-5	-5.7	42
14	Wolves	36	12	5	19	-13	-13.5	41
15	Man United	35	10	9	16	-9	-4.4	39
16	Tottenham	35	11	5	19	+6	-1.0	38
17	West Ham	35	9	10	16	-19	-11.2	37
18	Ipswich	36	4	10	22	-42	-40.3	22
19	Leicester	35	5	6	24	-47	-38.5	21
20	Southampton	36	2	6	28	-57	-50.6	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	14	2	1	+26	+22.7	44
2	Man City	18	12	3	3	+18	+15.0	39
3	Chelsea	18	11	5	2	+16	+18.5	38
4	Aston Villa	18	10	7	1	+12	+14.7	37
5	Arsenal	18	10	6	2	+17	+16.9	36
6	Newcastle	17	11	2	4	+19	+9.9	35
7	Nott'm Forest	17	9	4	4	+11	+3.2	31
8	Brentford	18	9	4	5	+6	+5.6	31
9	Brighton	18	7	8	3	+3	+5.5	29
10	Fulham	18	7	5	6	-1	+0.4	26
11	Bournemouth	18	7	4	7	+5	+7.8	25
12	Crystal Palace	18	5	7	6	-4	+8.0	22
13	Tottenham	17	6	3	8	+5	+2.2	21
14	Everton	18	4	9	5	+1	-0.8	21
15	Man United	17	6	3	8	-5	+0.9	21
16	Wolves	18	6	2	10	-5	-5.4	20
17	West Ham	18	5	5	8	-10	-8.3	20
18	Leicester	18	3	3	12	-21	-15.8	12
19	Ipswich	18	1	4	13	-28	-16.8	7
20	Southampton	18	1	3	14	-33	-28.9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	11	5	2	+20	+22.0	38
2	Arsenal	17	8	7	2	+16	+8.9	31
3	Nott'm Forest	18	9	3	6	+1	-7.8	30
4	Bournemouth	18	7	7	4	+7	+6.8	28
5	Newcastle	18	8	4	6	+2	+7.0	28
6	Man City	18	7	5	6	+6	+3.4	26
7	Brighton	18	7	5	6	+0	-1.4	26
8	Aston Villa	18	8	2	8	-5	-6.2	26
9	Chelsea	17	7	4	6	+5	+3.1	25
10	Fulham	18	7	4	7	+2	+4.5	25
11	Brentford	18	7	3	8	+4	-3.9	24
12	Crystal Palace	17	6	6	5	+0	+0.8	24
13	Everton	18	5	6	7	-6	-4.9	21
14	Wolves	18	6	3	9	-8	-8.0	21
15	Man United	18	4	6	8	-4	-5.3	18
16	Tottenham	18	5	2	11	+1	-3.1	17
17	West Ham	17	4	5	8	-9	-2.9	17
18	Ipswich	18	3	6	9	-14	-23.5	15
19	Leicester	17	2	3	12	-26	-22.7	9
20	Southampton	18	1	3	14	-24	-21.7	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.