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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Vieira

Portimonense

T T T T U

1–1

Full-time

Estrela

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Portimonense Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,5

2,3

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

3,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-2,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,0

2,0

Scored

0,7

Conceded

3,3

1,3

Goal diff per game

-2,7

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,98 xG 1,54

54% Possession 46%

15 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 7

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Portimonense 17. · Estrela 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Guimaraes	3	3	0	0	+4	+0.8	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+3	+3.0	9
3	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+3	+3.1	9
4	Boavista	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.4	7
5	Benfica	3	2	0	1	+2	+4.2	6
6	Casa Pia	4	1	2	1	+2	+0.8	5
7	Arouca	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.8	5
8	Famalicao	3	1	1	1	+0	-2.7	4
9	Rio Ave	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.6	4
10	Vizela	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.0	4
11	Gil Vicente	4	1	0	3	+2	-1.7	3
12	Farense	3	1	0	2	+1	-1.8	3
13	Sp Braga	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
14	Estoril	3	1	0	2	+0	+0.9	3
15	Estrela	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.5	3
16	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
17	Portimonense	3	0	1	2	-8	-3.2	1
18	Chaves	3	0	0	3	-9	-3.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Guimaraes	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.5	6
2	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+2	+3.0	6
3	Arouca	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.6	4
4	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
5	Vizela	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.9	4
6	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+4	-1.0	3
7	Farense	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.3	3
8	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.6	3
9	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
10	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.8	3
11	Porto	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
12	Estrela	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.1	3
13	Famalicao	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
14	Casa Pia	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.1	1
15	Sp Braga	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
16	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
17	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.5	0
18	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.5	6
2	Casa Pia	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.9	4
3	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
4	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.5	3
5	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.1	3
6	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
7	Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.7	3
8	Famalicao	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.2	3
9	Arouca	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
10	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
11	Rio Ave	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.2	1
12	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-5	-2.3	1
13	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.5	0
14	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.3	0
15	Gil Vicente	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.7	0
16	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.6	0
17	Vizela	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.9	0
18	Chaves	2	0	0	2	-7	-4.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.