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Primeira Liga
Referee: André Narciso
Estrela
U
2–1
Full-time
Maritimo
T U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Maritimo
Last 6 — all competitions · 1/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
0%
17%
Points per game
1,0
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
0%
83%
Both score Ø 92%
100%
83%
Average goals
2,0
3,3
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
1,0
2,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

37% Possession 63%
12 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 4
2 Offside 1
16 Free kicks against 15
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Benfica 34 28 3 3 +62 87
2 Porto 34 27 4 3 +51 85
3 Sp Braga 34 25 3 6 +45 78
4 Sp Lisbon 34 23 5 6 +39 74
5 Arouca 34 15 9 10 -1 54
6 Guimaraes 34 16 5 13 -5 53
7 Chaves 34 12 10 12 -5 46
8 Famalicao 34 13 5 16 -8 44
9 Boavista 34 12 8 14 -11 44
10 Casa Pia 34 11 8 15 -9 41
11 Vizela 34 11 7 16 -4 40
12 Rio Ave 34 10 10 14 -7 40
13 Gil Vicente 34 10 7 17 -9 37
14 Estoril 34 10 5 19 -16 35
15 Portimonense 34 10 4 20 -23 34
16 Maritimo 34 7 5 22 -31 26
17 Pacos Ferreira 34 6 5 23 -36 23
18 Santa Clara 34 5 7 22 -32 22

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Estrela Maritimo
1–0 R. N'do ⚽
3′
Sebastián Guzmán 🟨
19′
Miguel Lopes 🟨
20′
Mansur ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
26′
Regis Ndo 🟨
27′
28′
🔁 B. Riascos
↦ João Afonso
Half-time 1–0
60′
🟨 Bruno Xadas
61′
🟨 Zainadine Júnior
69′
🔁 Val Soares
↦ Geny Catamo
69′
🔁 Cláudio Winck
↦ Bruno Xadas
Diogo Salomão 🔁
↦ R. Ndo
71′
Mário Balbúrdia 🔁
↦ Vitó
72′
76′
🟨 Brayan Riascos
80′
🟨 Val
2–0 Jean Felipe ⚽
S. Guzmán
80′
Aloísio Genézio 🔁
↦ S. Guzmán
85′
87′
⚽ Cláudio Winck 2–1
B. Riascos
João Silva 🔁
↦ Ronaldo Tavares
90′
Kikas 🔁
↦ Ronald
90′
91′
🔁 C. Ramírez
↦ André Vidigal
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Estrela

3-4-3
30 Bruno Brígido G
4 Kialonda Gaspar D
13 Miguel Lopes D
70 Mansur D
12 Jean Felipe M
18 Vitó M
32 S. Guzmán M
17 João Reis M
77 R. N'do F
20 Ronaldo Tavares F
89 Ronald F
Bench (9)
11 Diogo Salomão
8 Mário Balbúrdia
6 Aloísio Genézio
9 João Silva
29 Kikas
33 Rui Correia
27 Hevertton
80 Almeida
1 António Filipe

Coach: Sérgio Vieira

Maritimo

4-2-3-1
31 Marcelo Carné G
27 Paulinho D
3 M. Mosquera D
5 Zainadine Júnior D
94 Vítor Costa D
21 João Afonso M
16 Diogo Mendes M
57 Geny Catamo M
23 Bruno Xadas M
17 Félix Correia M
7 André Vidigal F
Bench (9)
29 B. Riascos
8 Val Soares
2 Cláudio Winck
11 C. Ramírez
74 Rúben Marques
4 Matheus Costa
12 Edgar Costa
85 Nito Gomes
30 G. Makaridze

Coach: José Gomes

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

André Narciso · 95 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
30,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.