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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

Maritimo

U T S T T

2–1

Full-time

Estrela

U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Maritimo Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/2 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 92%

83%

100%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 35/1 matches

Win Ø 60%

20%

100%

Points per game

0,7

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 80%

60%

100%

Both score Ø 79%

57%

100%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

0,9

2,0

Conceded

1,9

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

67% Possession 33%

26 Shots 11

9 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

11 Corners 4

5 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 15

5 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	34	28	3	3	+62	87
2	Porto	34	27	4	3	+51	85
3	Sp Braga	34	25	3	6	+45	78
4	Sp Lisbon	34	23	5	6	+39	74
5	Arouca	34	15	9	10	-1	54
6	Guimaraes	34	16	5	13	-5	53
7	Chaves	34	12	10	12	-5	46
8	Famalicao	34	13	5	16	-8	44
9	Boavista	34	12	8	14	-11	44
10	Casa Pia	34	11	8	15	-9	41
11	Vizela	34	11	7	16	-4	40
12	Rio Ave	34	10	10	14	-7	40
13	Gil Vicente	34	10	7	17	-9	37
14	Estoril	34	10	5	19	-16	35
15	Portimonense	34	10	4	20	-23	34
16	Maritimo	35	7	5	23	-32	26
17	Pacos Ferreira	34	6	5	23	-36	23
18	Santa Clara	34	5	7	22	-32	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	17	15	1	1	+36	46
2	Porto	17	15	0	2	+33	45
3	Sp Lisbon	17	13	2	2	+30	41
4	Sp Braga	17	13	2	2	+29	41
5	Guimaraes	17	10	3	4	+6	33
6	Arouca	17	10	2	5	+5	32
7	Boavista	17	8	6	3	+2	30
8	Famalicao	17	9	1	7	+2	28
9	Rio Ave	17	8	3	6	+4	27
10	Gil Vicente	17	6	6	5	+1	24
11	Casa Pia	17	6	5	6	+1	23
12	Chaves	17	6	5	6	-1	23
13	Estoril	17	7	2	8	-4	23
14	Maritimo	17	6	3	8	-2	21
15	Portimonense	17	6	3	8	-7	21
16	Vizela	17	5	4	8	-1	19
17	Santa Clara	17	4	5	8	-11	17
18	Pacos Ferreira	17	3	2	12	-20	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	17	13	2	2	+26	41
2	Porto	17	12	4	1	+18	40
3	Sp Braga	17	12	1	4	+16	37
4	Sp Lisbon	17	10	3	4	+9	33
5	Chaves	17	6	5	6	-4	23
6	Arouca	17	5	7	5	-6	22
7	Vizela	17	6	3	8	-3	21
8	Guimaraes	17	6	2	9	-11	20
9	Casa Pia	17	5	3	9	-10	18
10	Famalicao	17	4	4	9	-10	16
11	Boavista	17	4	2	11	-13	14
12	Gil Vicente	17	4	1	12	-10	13
13	Rio Ave	17	2	7	8	-11	13
14	Portimonense	17	4	1	12	-16	13
15	Estoril	17	3	3	11	-12	12
16	Pacos Ferreira	17	3	3	11	-16	12
17	Santa Clara	17	1	2	14	-21	5
18	Maritimo	18	1	2	15	-30	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.