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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

Tondela

T T T U T

2–2

Full-time

Arouca

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

0,5

0,7

Conceded

2,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 21%

23%

19%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

69%

54%

Both score Ø 58%

62%

54%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

1,2

0,9

Conceded

2,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

54% Possession 46%

6 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 16. · Arouca 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	26	22	4	0	+48	70
2	Sp Lisbon	26	20	4	2	+35	64
3	Benfica	26	18	4	4	+42	58
4	Sp Braga	26	13	7	6	+16	46
5	Gil Vicente	26	12	9	5	+12	45
6	Guimaraes	26	10	6	10	+2	36
7	Estoril	26	8	10	8	+0	34
8	Maritimo	26	8	8	10	-3	32
9	Pacos Ferreira	26	7	9	10	-8	30
10	Santa Clara	26	7	9	10	-13	30
11	Portimonense	26	7	8	11	-5	29
12	Famalicao	27	6	10	11	-8	28
13	Boavista	26	4	15	7	-8	27
14	Vizela	27	5	11	11	-16	26
15	Arouca	26	5	7	14	-23	22
16	Tondela	26	6	3	17	-21	21
17	Moreirense	26	4	8	14	-19	20
18	Belenenses	26	3	8	15	-31	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	11	2	0	+25	35
2	Sp Lisbon	13	11	1	1	+19	34
3	Benfica	13	8	2	3	+18	26
4	Sp Braga	14	7	4	3	+11	25
5	Guimaraes	12	7	2	3	+8	23
6	Santa Clara	13	6	4	3	-3	22
7	Gil Vicente	13	5	4	4	+4	19
8	Boavista	13	3	9	1	+3	18
9	Maritimo	13	3	6	4	+2	15
10	Estoril	13	3	6	4	+0	15
11	Famalicao	13	3	6	4	-1	15
12	Vizela	14	3	6	5	-5	15
13	Pacos Ferreira	13	3	5	5	-4	14
14	Tondela	13	4	1	8	-7	13
15	Moreirense	13	3	3	7	-4	12
16	Belenenses	13	3	3	7	-16	12
17	Arouca	13	3	2	8	-16	11
18	Portimonense	13	2	4	7	-7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	11	2	0	+23	35
2	Benfica	13	10	2	1	+24	32
3	Sp Lisbon	13	9	3	1	+16	30
4	Gil Vicente	13	7	5	1	+8	26
5	Sp Braga	12	6	3	3	+5	21
6	Portimonense	13	5	4	4	+2	19
7	Estoril	13	5	4	4	+0	19
8	Maritimo	13	5	2	6	-5	17
9	Pacos Ferreira	13	4	4	5	-4	16
10	Guimaraes	14	3	4	7	-6	13
11	Famalicao	14	3	4	7	-7	13
12	Arouca	13	2	5	6	-7	11
13	Vizela	13	2	5	6	-11	11
14	Boavista	13	1	6	6	-11	9
15	Santa Clara	13	1	5	7	-10	8
16	Tondela	13	2	2	9	-14	8
17	Moreirense	13	1	5	7	-15	8
18	Belenenses	13	0	5	8	-15	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.