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Primeira Liga

Referee: Jorge de Sousa

Tondela

S T T U T

1–2

Full-time

Arouca

S S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 23%

13%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

47%

27%

Both score Ø 44%

60%

27%

Average goals

2,5

2,1

Scored

0,8

0,9

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

53% Possession 47%

14 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 0

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 7

3 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 18. · Arouca 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	13	2	1	+26	41
2	Porto	16	10	5	1	+21	35
3	Sp Braga	16	10	3	3	+14	33
4	Sp Lisbon	15	9	3	3	+12	30
5	Guimaraes	16	9	3	4	+8	30
6	Rio Ave	15	7	2	6	+0	23
7	Maritimo	16	7	2	7	-1	23
8	Chaves	15	5	7	3	+2	22
9	Vitoria Setubal	15	5	4	6	+0	19
10	Boavista	15	4	5	6	-2	17
11	Belenenses	15	4	5	6	-5	17
12	Arouca	15	5	2	8	-6	17
13	Pacos Ferreira	16	4	5	7	-7	17
14	Estoril	16	4	3	9	-8	15
15	Feirense	15	4	2	9	-18	14
16	Nacional	16	3	3	10	-11	12
17	Moreirense	15	3	2	10	-12	11
18	Tondela	15	2	4	9	-13	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	8	7	1	0	+14	22
2	Porto	8	7	1	0	+12	22
3	Benfica	7	6	1	0	+15	19
4	Sp Lisbon	8	6	1	1	+12	19
5	Vitoria Setubal	8	4	1	3	+4	13
6	Maritimo	7	4	1	2	+3	13
7	Chaves	8	3	4	1	+2	13
8	Pacos Ferreira	8	3	4	1	+2	13
9	Guimaraes	8	3	3	2	+2	12
10	Rio Ave	8	4	0	4	-1	12
11	Arouca	8	3	1	4	-1	10
12	Belenenses	7	2	3	2	-1	9
13	Boavista	7	2	2	3	+1	8
14	Tondela	7	2	2	3	-2	8
15	Nacional	9	2	2	5	-7	8
16	Estoril	8	2	1	5	-4	7
17	Feirense	8	2	1	5	-10	7
18	Moreirense	7	1	2	4	-4	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+11	22
2	Guimaraes	8	6	0	2	+6	18
3	Porto	8	3	4	1	+9	13
4	Rio Ave	7	3	2	2	+1	11
5	Sp Lisbon	7	3	2	2	+0	11
6	Sp Braga	8	3	2	3	+0	11
7	Maritimo	9	3	1	5	-4	10
8	Chaves	7	2	3	2	+0	9
9	Boavista	8	2	3	3	-3	9
10	Belenenses	8	2	2	4	-4	8
11	Estoril	8	2	2	4	-4	8
12	Arouca	7	2	1	4	-5	7
13	Feirense	7	2	1	4	-8	7
14	Vitoria Setubal	7	1	3	3	-4	6
15	Moreirense	8	2	0	6	-8	6
16	Nacional	7	1	1	5	-4	4
17	Pacos Ferreira	8	1	1	6	-9	4
18	Tondela	8	0	2	6	-11	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.