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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Pedro Pinheiro

Arouca

S U T T S

1–1

Full-time

Moreirense

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 20%

22%

17%

Points per game

0,9

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

61%

48%

Both score Ø 55%

57%

52%

Average goals

2,8

2,6

Scored

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

77% Possession 23%

17 Shots 5

4 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Arouca 15. · Moreirense 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	23	20	3	0	+42	63
2	Sp Lisbon	24	18	4	2	+31	58
3	Benfica	23	16	3	4	+38	51
4	Sp Braga	23	13	5	5	+17	44
5	Gil Vicente	23	11	7	5	+11	40
6	Guimaraes	23	8	6	9	+3	30
7	Estoril	23	7	9	7	-1	30
8	Maritimo	24	7	8	9	-3	29
9	Portimonense	23	7	7	9	-2	28
10	Pacos Ferreira	24	6	9	9	-7	27
11	Famalicao	24	6	8	10	-7	26
12	Santa Clara	23	6	7	10	-15	25
13	Vizela	23	5	8	10	-14	23
14	Boavista	23	3	13	7	-9	22
15	Arouca	23	5	6	12	-20	21
16	Tondela	24	6	2	16	-17	20
17	Moreirense	23	4	7	12	-16	19
18	Belenenses	24	3	6	15	-31	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	11	10	1	0	+21	31
2	Sp Lisbon	12	10	1	1	+17	31
3	Sp Braga	12	7	3	2	+12	24
4	Benfica	11	7	1	3	+15	22
5	Guimaraes	11	6	2	3	+7	20
6	Santa Clara	12	5	4	3	-5	19
7	Gil Vicente	12	5	3	4	+4	18
8	Boavista	12	3	8	1	+3	17
9	Maritimo	12	3	6	3	+3	15
10	Famalicao	12	3	5	4	-1	14
11	Pacos Ferreira	12	3	5	4	-2	14
12	Vizela	12	3	4	5	-5	13
13	Moreirense	11	3	3	5	-1	12
14	Estoril	11	2	6	3	-1	12
15	Tondela	12	4	0	8	-7	12
16	Belenenses	12	3	2	7	-16	11
17	Portimonense	12	2	4	6	-6	10
18	Arouca	11	3	1	7	-15	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	12	10	2	0	+21	32
2	Benfica	12	9	2	1	+23	29
3	Sp Lisbon	12	8	3	1	+14	27
4	Gil Vicente	11	6	4	1	+7	22
5	Sp Braga	11	6	2	3	+5	20
6	Portimonense	11	5	3	3	+4	18
7	Estoril	12	5	3	4	+0	18
8	Maritimo	12	4	2	6	-6	14
9	Pacos Ferreira	12	3	4	5	-5	13
10	Famalicao	12	3	3	6	-6	12
11	Arouca	12	2	5	5	-5	11
12	Guimaraes	12	2	4	6	-4	10
13	Vizela	11	2	4	5	-9	10
14	Tondela	12	2	2	8	-10	8
15	Moreirense	12	1	4	7	-15	7
16	Santa Clara	11	1	3	7	-10	6
17	Boavista	11	0	5	6	-12	5
18	Belenenses	12	0	4	8	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.