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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Tondela

T U T T S

0–1

Full-time

Arouca

U S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

3,7

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 23%

13%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

58%

Average goals

2,6

2,5

Scored

0,9

1,4

Conceded

1,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

55% Possession 45%

12 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 18. · Arouca 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	25	20	1	4	+49	61
2	Sp Lisbon	25	18	5	2	+34	59
3	Porto	24	17	4	3	+30	55
4	Sp Braga	24	12	8	4	+23	44
5	Rio Ave	24	10	6	8	+1	36
6	Arouca	24	8	11	5	+6	35
7	Guimaraes	24	8	10	6	-1	34
8	Pacos Ferreira	25	8	8	9	-1	32
9	Estoril	24	8	6	10	-4	30
10	Maritimo	25	8	5	12	-12	29
11	Vitoria Setubal	24	6	10	8	-9	28
12	Belenenses	24	7	7	10	-21	28
13	Nacional	24	6	7	11	-9	25
14	U. Madeira	24	6	6	12	-16	24
15	Moreirense	24	6	5	13	-14	23
16	Boavista	24	5	6	13	-15	21
17	Academica	24	4	7	13	-20	19
18	Tondela	24	3	4	17	-21	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	12	10	0	2	+27	30
2	Sp Lisbon	13	9	3	1	+14	30
3	Porto	12	9	2	1	+16	29
4	Sp Braga	11	7	3	1	+20	24
5	Rio Ave	12	7	1	4	+4	22
6	Estoril	12	6	3	3	+6	21
7	Arouca	12	5	4	3	+5	19
8	U. Madeira	12	5	4	3	+2	19
9	Pacos Ferreira	13	5	3	5	+3	18
10	Nacional	12	5	3	4	+1	18
11	Maritimo	12	5	2	5	+3	17
12	Guimaraes	13	4	5	4	+2	17
13	Academica	12	4	4	4	-5	16
14	Belenenses	12	4	4	4	-6	16
15	Vitoria Setubal	12	2	8	2	-6	14
16	Boavista	12	2	4	6	-7	10
17	Moreirense	12	2	3	7	-8	9
18	Tondela	12	1	2	9	-13	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	13	10	1	2	+22	31
2	Sp Lisbon	12	9	2	1	+20	29
3	Porto	12	8	2	2	+14	26
4	Sp Braga	13	5	5	3	+3	20
5	Guimaraes	11	4	5	2	-3	17
6	Arouca	12	3	7	2	+1	16
7	Rio Ave	12	3	5	4	-3	14
8	Vitoria Setubal	12	4	2	6	-3	14
9	Pacos Ferreira	12	3	5	4	-4	14
10	Moreirense	12	4	2	6	-6	14
11	Maritimo	13	3	3	7	-15	12
12	Belenenses	12	3	3	6	-15	12
13	Boavista	12	3	2	7	-8	11
14	Estoril	12	2	3	7	-10	9
15	Tondela	12	2	2	8	-8	8
16	Nacional	12	1	4	7	-10	7
17	U. Madeira	12	1	2	9	-18	5
18	Academica	12	0	3	9	-15	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.