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Championship

Referee: D Bond

Derby

T T S T T

1–1

Full-time

Coventry

U T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Coventry

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

This season — Championship · 40/39 matches

Win Ø 37%

30%

44%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

40%

49%

Both score Ø 52%

50%

54%

Average goals

2,1

2,6

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

54% Possession 46%

15 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 6

8 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 10

2 Offside 0

4 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 18. · Coventry 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	39	25	8	6	+60	83
2	Bournemouth	37	19	11	7	+25	68
3	Huddersfield	38	18	12	8	+16	66
4	Blackburn	39	18	10	11	+15	64
5	Sheffield United	37	18	8	11	+16	62
6	Luton	37	18	8	11	+15	62
7	Middlesbrough	38	18	8	12	+10	62
8	Coventry	39	17	9	13	+9	60
9	West Brom	39	16	11	12	+10	59
10	QPR	38	17	8	13	+7	59
11	Millwall	38	15	12	11	+4	57
12	Preston	40	14	15	11	-2	57
13	Nott'm Forest	34	16	8	10	+18	56
14	Blackpool	38	15	10	13	+3	55
15	Swansea	38	15	8	15	-7	53
16	Stoke	39	13	11	15	+4	50
17	Cardiff	40	14	8	18	-7	50
18	Derby	40	12	12	16	-7	48
19	Bristol City	39	13	7	19	-19	46
20	Hull	40	12	8	20	-7	44
21	Birmingham	40	10	12	18	-19	42
22	Reading	39	11	7	21	-28	40
23	Barnsley	38	6	11	21	-24	29
24	Peterboro	37	5	8	24	-46	23
25	Peterborough	37	5	8	24	-46	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	20	13	4	3	+30	43
2	Blackburn	21	13	4	4	+18	43
3	Middlesbrough	19	13	2	4	+15	41
4	Huddersfield	18	11	5	2	+15	38
5	Luton	19	11	4	4	+16	37
6	West Brom	19	10	7	2	+15	37
7	Coventry	21	11	4	6	+13	37
8	Bournemouth	19	10	6	3	+17	36
9	Derby	19	10	6	3	+10	36
10	Millwall	19	10	6	3	+10	36
11	Blackpool	21	11	3	7	+5	36
12	Sheffield United	17	10	3	4	+20	33
13	Nott'm Forest	19	10	3	6	+11	33
14	QPR	19	9	6	4	+10	33
15	Swansea	18	9	4	5	+6	31
16	Preston	19	7	9	3	+4	30
17	Stoke	19	8	4	7	+6	28
18	Cardiff	21	8	3	10	+2	27
19	Bristol City	19	7	5	7	-1	26
20	Birmingham	20	6	6	8	-4	24
21	Reading	19	6	4	9	-9	22
22	Barnsley	19	5	6	8	-5	21
23	Peterboro	18	4	6	8	-7	18
24	Peterborough	18	4	6	8	-7	18
25	Hull	19	5	3	11	-8	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	19	12	4	3	+30	40
2	Bournemouth	18	9	5	4	+8	32
3	Sheffield United	20	8	5	7	-4	29
4	Huddersfield	20	7	7	6	+1	28
5	Preston	21	7	6	8	-6	27
6	Hull	21	7	5	9	+1	26
7	QPR	19	8	2	9	-3	26
8	Luton	18	7	4	7	-1	25
9	Nott'm Forest	15	6	5	4	+7	23
10	Coventry	18	6	5	7	-4	23
11	Cardiff	19	6	5	8	-9	23
12	Stoke	20	5	7	8	-2	22
13	West Brom	20	6	4	10	-5	22
14	Swansea	20	6	4	10	-13	22
15	Blackburn	18	5	6	7	-3	21
16	Middlesbrough	19	5	6	8	-5	21
17	Millwall	19	5	6	8	-6	21
18	Bristol City	20	6	2	12	-18	20
19	Blackpool	17	4	7	6	-2	19
20	Birmingham	20	4	6	10	-15	18
21	Reading	20	5	3	12	-19	18
22	Derby	21	2	6	13	-17	12
23	Barnsley	19	1	5	13	-19	8
24	Peterboro	19	1	2	16	-39	5
25	Peterborough	19	1	2	16	-39	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.