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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Costa

Arouca

T T S U T

0–1

Full-time

Pacos Ferreira

U T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Pacos Ferreira

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 22%

20%

24%

Points per game

0,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

56%

36%

Both score Ø 52%

56%

48%

Average goals

2,7

2,1

Scored

0,9

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

60% Possession 40%

14 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 9

1 Offside 4

16 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 15. · Pacos Ferreira 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	25	21	4	0	+44	67
2	Sp Lisbon	25	19	4	2	+33	61
3	Benfica	26	18	4	4	+42	58
4	Sp Braga	25	13	7	5	+17	46
5	Gil Vicente	25	11	9	5	+11	42
6	Estoril	26	8	10	8	+0	34
7	Guimaraes	25	9	6	10	+1	33
8	Maritimo	25	8	8	9	-2	32
9	Santa Clara	26	7	9	10	-13	30
10	Portimonense	26	7	8	11	-5	29
11	Famalicao	26	6	9	11	-8	27
12	Pacos Ferreira	25	6	9	10	-9	27
13	Boavista	25	4	14	7	-8	26
14	Vizela	26	5	10	11	-16	25
15	Arouca	25	5	7	13	-22	22
16	Tondela	25	6	3	16	-17	21
17	Moreirense	25	4	8	13	-17	20
18	Belenenses	25	3	7	15	-31	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	13	11	1	1	+19	34
2	Porto	12	10	2	0	+21	32
3	Benfica	13	8	2	3	+18	26
4	Sp Braga	13	7	4	2	+12	25
5	Guimaraes	12	7	2	3	+8	23
6	Santa Clara	13	6	4	3	-3	22
7	Gil Vicente	13	5	4	4	+4	19
8	Boavista	13	3	9	1	+3	18
9	Maritimo	12	3	6	3	+3	15
10	Estoril	13	3	6	4	+0	15
11	Famalicao	13	3	6	4	-1	15
12	Pacos Ferreira	13	3	5	5	-4	14
13	Vizela	13	3	5	5	-5	14
14	Tondela	13	4	1	8	-7	13
15	Moreirense	12	3	3	6	-2	12
16	Arouca	12	3	2	7	-15	11
17	Belenenses	12	3	2	7	-16	11
18	Portimonense	13	2	4	7	-7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	11	2	0	+23	35
2	Benfica	13	10	2	1	+24	32
3	Sp Lisbon	12	8	3	1	+14	27
4	Gil Vicente	12	6	5	1	+7	23
5	Sp Braga	12	6	3	3	+5	21
6	Portimonense	13	5	4	4	+2	19
7	Estoril	13	5	4	4	+0	19
8	Maritimo	13	5	2	6	-5	17
9	Pacos Ferreira	12	3	4	5	-5	13
10	Famalicao	13	3	3	7	-7	12
11	Arouca	13	2	5	6	-7	11
12	Vizela	13	2	5	6	-11	11
13	Guimaraes	13	2	4	7	-7	10
14	Tondela	12	2	2	8	-10	8
15	Santa Clara	13	1	5	7	-10	8
16	Boavista	12	1	5	6	-11	8
17	Moreirense	13	1	5	7	-15	8
18	Belenenses	13	0	5	8	-15	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.