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Primeira Liga

Referee: Vitor Ferreira

Estoril

T T T U U

1–0

Full-time

Tondela

U U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estoril Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

2,2

3,5

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 29%

29%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

43%

76%

Both score Ø 62%

57%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,4

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

1,1

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

45% Possession 55%

15 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

1 Corners 2

1 Offside 1

21 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estoril 7. · Tondela 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	22	19	3	0	+41	60
2	Sp Lisbon	22	17	3	2	+28	54
3	Benfica	22	16	2	4	+38	50
4	Sp Braga	22	12	5	5	+16	41
5	Gil Vicente	21	9	7	5	+8	34
6	Guimaraes	21	8	6	7	+6	30
7	Estoril	21	6	9	6	+1	27
8	Portimonense	22	7	6	9	-2	27
9	Maritimo	21	6	7	8	-5	25
10	Santa Clara	22	6	6	10	-15	24
11	Vizela	21	5	8	8	-12	23
12	Boavista	22	3	12	7	-9	21
13	Pacos Ferreira	22	4	9	9	-10	21
14	Tondela	21	6	2	13	-14	20
15	Moreirense	21	4	7	10	-10	19
16	Arouca	21	4	6	11	-19	18
17	Famalicao	21	3	8	10	-14	17
18	Belenenses	21	2	6	13	-28	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	11	10	1	0	+21	31
2	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+14	28
3	Sp Braga	12	7	3	2	+12	24
4	Benfica	11	7	1	3	+15	22
5	Guimaraes	10	6	2	2	+9	20
6	Santa Clara	11	5	3	3	-5	18
7	Boavista	11	3	7	1	+3	16
8	Gil Vicente	11	4	3	4	+2	15
9	Maritimo	10	3	5	2	+4	14
10	Vizela	11	3	4	4	-4	13
11	Moreirense	10	3	3	4	+0	12
12	Tondela	11	4	0	7	-6	12
13	Pacos Ferreira	11	2	5	4	-3	11
14	Portimonense	12	2	4	6	-6	10
15	Arouca	10	3	1	6	-12	10
16	Estoril	10	1	6	3	-2	9
17	Famalicao	10	1	5	4	-7	8
18	Belenenses	10	2	2	6	-15	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	11	9	2	0	+20	29
2	Benfica	11	9	1	1	+23	28
3	Sp Lisbon	11	8	2	1	+14	26
4	Gil Vicente	10	5	4	1	+6	19
5	Estoril	11	5	3	3	+3	18
6	Sp Braga	10	5	2	3	+4	17
7	Portimonense	10	5	2	3	+4	17
8	Maritimo	11	3	2	6	-9	11
9	Guimaraes	11	2	4	5	-3	10
10	Pacos Ferreira	11	2	4	5	-7	10
11	Vizela	10	2	4	4	-8	10
12	Famalicao	11	2	3	6	-7	9
13	Arouca	11	1	5	5	-7	8
14	Tondela	10	2	2	6	-8	8
15	Moreirense	11	1	4	6	-10	7
16	Santa Clara	11	1	3	7	-10	6
17	Boavista	11	0	5	6	-12	5
18	Belenenses	11	0	4	7	-13	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.