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Serie A

Referee: M Di Bello

Cagliari

U U S T T

0–1

Full-time

Milan

S U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cagliari Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,7

This season — Serie A · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

66%

Points per game

0,9

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

55%

52%

Both score Ø 61%

62%

59%

Average goals

2,8

2,9

Scored

1,0

1,9

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

42% Possession 58%

13 Shots 21

1 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cagliari 17. · Milan 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	30	19	6	5	+31	63
2	Milan	29	19	6	4	+26	63
3	Inter	29	17	9	3	+38	60
4	Juventus	29	16	8	5	+19	56
5	Lazio	29	14	7	8	+16	49
6	Atalanta	28	13	9	6	+19	48
7	Roma	29	14	6	9	+12	48
8	Fiorentina	29	14	5	10	+10	47
9	Sassuolo	30	11	10	9	+6	43
10	Verona	29	11	8	10	+8	41
11	Torino	29	9	8	12	+4	35
12	Bologna	28	9	6	13	-11	33
13	Empoli	29	8	8	13	-14	32
14	Udinese	28	6	12	10	-10	30
15	Spezia	30	8	5	17	-23	29
16	Sampdoria	29	7	5	17	-14	26
17	Cagliari	29	5	10	14	-25	25
18	Genoa	30	2	16	12	-24	22
19	Venezia	28	5	7	16	-27	22
20	Salernitana	27	3	7	17	-41	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	15	10	3	2	+23	33
2	Milan	15	9	3	3	+11	30
3	Fiorentina	14	9	2	3	+16	29
4	Napoli	15	9	2	4	+14	29
5	Lazio	14	8	4	2	+15	28
6	Roma	15	8	4	3	+6	28
7	Juventus	14	8	3	3	+9	27
8	Verona	15	8	2	5	+11	26
9	Torino	15	7	4	4	+11	25
10	Bologna	14	6	3	5	+1	21
11	Sassuolo	15	5	5	5	+0	20
12	Udinese	14	4	7	3	-2	19
13	Atalanta	14	4	6	4	+6	18
14	Spezia	14	4	3	7	-2	15
15	Sampdoria	15	4	3	8	-5	15
16	Cagliari	14	2	6	6	-9	12
17	Genoa	15	1	8	6	-9	11
18	Empoli	14	3	2	9	-15	11
19	Venezia	14	2	4	8	-13	10
20	Salernitana	14	1	5	8	-19	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	15	10	4	1	+17	34
2	Milan	14	10	3	1	+15	33
3	Atalanta	14	9	3	2	+13	30
4	Juventus	15	8	5	2	+10	29
5	Inter	14	7	6	1	+15	27
6	Sassuolo	15	6	5	4	+6	23
7	Lazio	15	6	3	6	+1	21
8	Empoli	15	5	6	4	+1	21
9	Roma	14	6	2	6	+6	20
10	Fiorentina	15	5	3	7	-6	18
11	Verona	14	3	6	5	-3	15
12	Spezia	16	4	2	10	-21	14
13	Cagliari	15	3	4	8	-16	13
14	Bologna	14	3	3	8	-12	12
15	Venezia	14	3	3	8	-14	12
16	Udinese	14	2	5	7	-8	11
17	Sampdoria	14	3	2	9	-9	11
18	Genoa	15	1	8	6	-15	11
19	Torino	14	2	4	8	-7	10
20	Salernitana	13	2	2	9	-22	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.