Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Frosinone
Benevento
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 1–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Monza
|
31 | 16 | 9 | 6 | +21 | 57 |
| 2 |
Lecce
|
31 | 14 | 14 | 3 | +22 | 56 |
| 3 |
Cremonese
|
30 | 16 | 8 | 6 | +16 | 56 |
| 4 |
Pisa
|
30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | +15 | 55 |
| 5 |
Brescia
|
30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | +15 | 53 |
| 6 |
Benevento
|
29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | +20 | 51 |
| 7 |
Ascoli
|
30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | +6 | 49 |
| 8 |
Frosinone
|
30 | 12 | 12 | 6 | +14 | 48 |
| 9 |
Perugia
|
30 | 11 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 46 |
| 10 |
Cittadella
|
30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | +4 | 44 |
| 11 |
Reggina
|
31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | -8 | 43 |
| 12 |
Ternana
|
31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | -1 | 41 |
| 13 |
Parma
|
31 | 8 | 15 | 8 | +4 | 39 |
| 14 |
Como
|
30 | 8 | 14 | 8 | -4 | 38 |
| 15 |
Spal
|
30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 | Alessandria | 31 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -23 | 25 |
| 17 |
Cosenza
|
30 | 5 | 9 | 16 | -21 | 24 |
| 18 |
Vicenza
|
30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -23 | 21 |
| 19 |
Crotone
|
31 | 3 | 10 | 18 | -20 | 19 |
| 20 | Pordenone | 30 | 2 | 7 | 21 | -35 | 13 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Crotone
Frosinone
Frosinone
Ascoli
Frosinone
Frosinone
Cosenza
Cittadella
Frosinone
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.