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Primeira Liga

Referee: Gustavo Correia

Porto

S U S U S

4–0

Full-time

Tondela

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 54%

84%

24%

Points per game

2,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

72%

68%

Both score Ø 64%

64%

Average goals

3,3

3,2

Scored

2,5

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,9

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

67% Possession 33%

17 Shots 9

9 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

21 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Porto 1. · Tondela 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	25	21	4	0	+44	67
2	Sp Lisbon	25	19	4	2	+33	61
3	Benfica	26	18	4	4	+42	58
4	Sp Braga	25	13	7	5	+17	46
5	Gil Vicente	25	11	9	5	+11	42
6	Guimaraes	26	10	6	10	+2	36
7	Estoril	26	8	10	8	+0	34
8	Maritimo	26	8	8	10	-3	32
9	Pacos Ferreira	26	7	9	10	-8	30
10	Santa Clara	26	7	9	10	-13	30
11	Portimonense	26	7	8	11	-5	29
12	Famalicao	26	6	9	11	-8	27
13	Boavista	26	4	15	7	-8	27
14	Vizela	26	5	10	11	-16	25
15	Arouca	26	5	7	14	-23	22
16	Tondela	25	6	3	16	-17	21
17	Moreirense	25	4	8	13	-17	20
18	Belenenses	26	3	8	15	-31	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	13	11	1	1	+19	34
2	Porto	12	10	2	0	+21	32
3	Benfica	13	8	2	3	+18	26
4	Sp Braga	13	7	4	2	+12	25
5	Guimaraes	12	7	2	3	+8	23
6	Santa Clara	13	6	4	3	-3	22
7	Gil Vicente	13	5	4	4	+4	19
8	Boavista	13	3	9	1	+3	18
9	Maritimo	13	3	6	4	+2	15
10	Estoril	13	3	6	4	+0	15
11	Famalicao	13	3	6	4	-1	15
12	Pacos Ferreira	13	3	5	5	-4	14
13	Vizela	13	3	5	5	-5	14
14	Tondela	13	4	1	8	-7	13
15	Moreirense	12	3	3	6	-2	12
16	Belenenses	13	3	3	7	-16	12
17	Arouca	13	3	2	8	-16	11
18	Portimonense	13	2	4	7	-7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	11	2	0	+23	35
2	Benfica	13	10	2	1	+24	32
3	Sp Lisbon	12	8	3	1	+14	27
4	Gil Vicente	12	6	5	1	+7	23
5	Sp Braga	12	6	3	3	+5	21
6	Portimonense	13	5	4	4	+2	19
7	Estoril	13	5	4	4	+0	19
8	Maritimo	13	5	2	6	-5	17
9	Pacos Ferreira	13	4	4	5	-4	16
10	Guimaraes	14	3	4	7	-6	13
11	Famalicao	13	3	3	7	-7	12
12	Arouca	13	2	5	6	-7	11
13	Vizela	13	2	5	6	-11	11
14	Boavista	13	1	6	6	-11	9
15	Tondela	12	2	2	8	-10	8
16	Santa Clara	13	1	5	7	-10	8
17	Moreirense	13	1	5	7	-15	8
18	Belenenses	13	0	5	8	-15	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.