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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Tondela

U T S T T

0–1

Full-time

Sp Braga

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Sp Braga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 41%

27%

55%

Points per game

0,9

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

73%

55%

Both score Ø 57%

64%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

45% Possession 55%

7 Shots 8

2 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 16. · Sp Braga 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	23	20	3	0	+42	63
2	Sp Lisbon	23	18	3	2	+31	57
3	Benfica	23	16	3	4	+38	51
4	Sp Braga	22	12	5	5	+16	41
5	Gil Vicente	23	11	7	5	+11	40
6	Guimaraes	23	8	6	9	+3	30
7	Estoril	23	7	9	7	-1	30
8	Maritimo	23	7	7	9	-3	28
9	Portimonense	22	7	6	9	-2	27
10	Pacos Ferreira	23	5	9	9	-9	24
11	Santa Clara	22	6	6	10	-15	24
12	Famalicao	23	5	8	10	-8	23
13	Vizela	23	5	8	10	-14	23
14	Boavista	23	3	13	7	-9	22
15	Arouca	23	5	6	12	-20	21
16	Tondela	22	6	2	14	-15	20
17	Moreirense	23	4	7	12	-16	19
18	Belenenses	23	3	6	14	-29	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	11	10	1	0	+21	31
2	Sp Lisbon	12	10	1	1	+17	31
3	Sp Braga	12	7	3	2	+12	24
4	Benfica	11	7	1	3	+15	22
5	Guimaraes	11	6	2	3	+7	20
6	Gil Vicente	12	5	3	4	+4	18
7	Santa Clara	11	5	3	3	-5	18
8	Boavista	12	3	8	1	+3	17
9	Maritimo	11	3	5	3	+3	14
10	Pacos Ferreira	12	3	5	4	-2	14
11	Vizela	12	3	4	5	-5	13
12	Moreirense	11	3	3	5	-1	12
13	Estoril	11	2	6	3	-1	12
14	Tondela	11	4	0	7	-6	12
15	Famalicao	11	2	5	4	-2	11
16	Belenenses	11	3	2	6	-14	11
17	Portimonense	12	2	4	6	-6	10
18	Arouca	11	3	1	7	-15	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	12	10	2	0	+21	32
2	Benfica	12	9	2	1	+23	29
3	Sp Lisbon	11	8	2	1	+14	26
4	Gil Vicente	11	6	4	1	+7	22
5	Estoril	12	5	3	4	+0	18
6	Sp Braga	10	5	2	3	+4	17
7	Portimonense	10	5	2	3	+4	17
8	Maritimo	12	4	2	6	-6	14
9	Famalicao	12	3	3	6	-6	12
10	Arouca	12	2	5	5	-5	11
11	Guimaraes	12	2	4	6	-4	10
12	Pacos Ferreira	11	2	4	5	-7	10
13	Vizela	11	2	4	5	-9	10
14	Tondela	11	2	2	7	-9	8
15	Moreirense	12	1	4	7	-15	7
16	Santa Clara	11	1	3	7	-10	6
17	Boavista	11	0	5	6	-12	5
18	Belenenses	12	0	4	8	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.