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Primeira Liga

Referee: Miguel Nogueira

Arouca

T T S U T

0–3

Full-time

Maritimo

S S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Maritimo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

1,8

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

2,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 24%

19%

29%

Points per game

0,9

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

57%

48%

Both score Ø 60%

57%

62%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

0,9

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

65% Possession 35%

20 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 6

9 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Arouca 17. · Maritimo 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	22	19	3	0	+41	60
2	Sp Lisbon	22	17	3	2	+28	54
3	Benfica	22	16	2	4	+38	50
4	Sp Braga	22	12	5	5	+16	41
5	Gil Vicente	22	10	7	5	+9	37
6	Guimaraes	22	8	6	8	+5	30
7	Estoril	22	7	9	6	+2	30
8	Portimonense	22	7	6	9	-2	27
9	Maritimo	21	6	7	8	-5	25
10	Santa Clara	22	6	6	10	-15	24
11	Vizela	22	5	8	9	-13	23
12	Boavista	22	3	12	7	-9	21
13	Pacos Ferreira	22	4	9	9	-10	21
14	Famalicao	22	4	8	10	-9	20
15	Tondela	22	6	2	14	-15	20
16	Moreirense	22	4	7	11	-15	19
17	Arouca	21	4	6	11	-19	18
18	Belenenses	22	3	6	13	-27	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	11	10	1	0	+21	31
2	Sp Lisbon	11	9	1	1	+14	28
3	Sp Braga	12	7	3	2	+12	24
4	Benfica	11	7	1	3	+15	22
5	Guimaraes	10	6	2	2	+9	20
6	Santa Clara	11	5	3	3	-5	18
7	Boavista	11	3	7	1	+3	16
8	Gil Vicente	11	4	3	4	+2	15
9	Maritimo	10	3	5	2	+4	14
10	Vizela	12	3	4	5	-5	13
11	Moreirense	10	3	3	4	+0	12
12	Estoril	11	2	6	3	-1	12
13	Tondela	11	4	0	7	-6	12
14	Famalicao	11	2	5	4	-2	11
15	Pacos Ferreira	11	2	5	4	-3	11
16	Belenenses	11	3	2	6	-14	11
17	Portimonense	12	2	4	6	-6	10
18	Arouca	10	3	1	6	-12	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	11	9	2	0	+20	29
2	Benfica	11	9	1	1	+23	28
3	Sp Lisbon	11	8	2	1	+14	26
4	Gil Vicente	11	6	4	1	+7	22
5	Estoril	11	5	3	3	+3	18
6	Sp Braga	10	5	2	3	+4	17
7	Portimonense	10	5	2	3	+4	17
8	Maritimo	11	3	2	6	-9	11
9	Guimaraes	12	2	4	6	-4	10
10	Pacos Ferreira	11	2	4	5	-7	10
11	Vizela	10	2	4	4	-8	10
12	Famalicao	11	2	3	6	-7	9
13	Arouca	11	1	5	5	-7	8
14	Tondela	11	2	2	7	-9	8
15	Moreirense	12	1	4	7	-15	7
16	Santa Clara	11	1	3	7	-10	6
17	Boavista	11	0	5	6	-12	5
18	Belenenses	11	0	4	7	-13	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.