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La Liga
Referee: César Soto
Ath Madrid
U S U S T
2–0
Full-time
Barcelona
U S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Barcelona
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,0
2,7
Scored
1,2
1,8
Conceded
0,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,0
This season — La Liga · 7/6 matches
Win Ø 54%
57%
50%
Points per game
2,0
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
57%
50%
Both score Ø 62%
57%
67%
Average goals
2,1
2,7
Scored
1,3
1,8
Conceded
0,9
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

29% Possession 71%
6 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 2
0 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 6
0 Offside 3
13 Free kicks against 10
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ath Madrid 4. · Barcelona 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Real Madrid 7 5 2 0 +13 17
2 Sociedad 7 5 1 1 +4 16
3 Sevilla 6 4 2 0 +8 14
4 Ath Madrid 7 4 2 1 +3 14
5 Osasuna 8 4 2 2 +0 14
6 Vallecano 8 4 1 3 +5 13
7 Ath Bilbao 8 3 4 1 +3 13
8 Barcelona 6 3 3 0 +6 12
9 Valencia 8 3 3 2 +4 12
10 Betis 7 3 3 1 +4 12
11 Mallorca 8 3 2 3 -5 11
12 Villarreal 6 1 5 0 +3 8
13 Celta 7 2 1 4 -3 7
14 Cadiz 8 1 4 3 -4 7
15 Espanol 7 1 3 3 -3 6
16 Elche 7 1 3 3 -4 6
17 Levante 8 0 4 4 -7 4
18 Granada 7 0 3 4 -7 3
19 Alaves 7 1 0 6 -10 3
20 Getafe 7 0 0 7 -10 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ath Madrid Barcelona
20′
🟨 Gavi
1–0 T. Lemar
L. Suárez
23′
2–0 L. Suárez
T. Lemar
44′
Half-time 2–0
Rodrigo de Paul 🟨
46′
K. Trippier 🔁
↦ R. De Paul
46′
46′
🔁 Sergi Roberto
↦ Nico González
64′
🔁 Ansu Fati
↦ Philippe Coutinho
A. Griezmann 🔁
↦ L. Suárez
72′
Á. Correa 🔁
↦ João Félix
72′
75′
🔁 Riqui Puig
↦ Gavi
75′
🔁 L. de Jong
↦ Óscar Mingueza
Koke 🟨
78′
Renan Lodi 🔁
↦ Y. Carrasco
81′
Felipe 🔁
↦ Hermoso
81′
86′
🔁 C. Lenglet
↦ S. Dest
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Ath Madrid

3-1-4-2
13 J. Oblak G
15 S. Savić D
2 J. Giménez D
22 Hermoso D
6 Koke M
21 Y. Carrasco M
11 T. Lemar M
5 R. De Paul M
14 Marcos Llorente M
9 L. Suárez F
7 João Félix F
Bench (9)
23 K. Trippier
8 A. Griezmann
10 Á. Correa
12 Renan Lodi
18 Felipe
16 H. Herrera
1 B. Lecomte
17 I. Šaponjić
24 Š. Vrsaljko

Coach: D. Simeone

Barcelona

4-2-3-1
1 M. ter Stegen G
3 Piqué D
4 R. Araújo D
22 Óscar Mingueza D
2 S. Dest D
5 Sergio Busquets M
14 Philippe Coutinho M
21 F. de Jong M
28 Nico González M
30 Gavi M
9 M. Depay F
Bench (11)
20 Sergi Roberto
10 Ansu Fati
6 Riqui Puig
17 L. de Jong
15 C. Lenglet
26 Iñaki Peña
13 Neto
18 Jordi Alba
24 Eric García
11 Y. Demir
23 S. Umtiti

Coach: R. Koeman

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,92
U
3,52
B
4,21
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,01
U2,5 ✓
1,83
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

César Soto · 119 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.