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Primeira Liga
Referee: Manuel Mota
Porto
U S U S S
2–1
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Pacos Ferreira
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
67%
17%
Points per game
2,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,3
Scored
2,3
0,8
Conceded
0,7
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,7
-0,7
This season — Primeira Liga · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 50%
71%
29%
Points per game
2,4
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
57%
43%
Both score Ø 50%
57%
43%
Average goals
2,9
2,3
Scored
2,3
1,0
Conceded
0,6
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,7
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

71% Possession 29%
23 Shots 7
8 Shots on target 2
4 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 6
11 Corners 3
0 Offside 3
9 Free kicks against 19
4 Yellow cards 5
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Porto 2. · Pacos Ferreira 9.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Benfica 7 7 0 0 +15 21
2 Porto 7 5 2 0 +12 17
3 Sp Lisbon 7 5 2 0 +8 17
4 Estoril 7 4 2 1 +5 14
5 Sp Braga 7 3 3 1 +4 12
6 Portimonense 7 3 2 2 +3 11
7 Guimaraes 8 2 4 2 +2 10
8 Boavista 7 2 3 2 +0 9
9 Pacos Ferreira 7 2 3 2 -2 9
10 Gil Vicente 7 2 2 3 +0 8
11 Vizela 8 1 5 2 -6 8
12 Maritimo 8 1 4 3 -3 7
13 Moreirense 8 1 4 3 -6 7
14 Tondela 7 2 0 5 -4 6
15 Santa Clara 8 1 3 4 -10 6
16 Arouca 7 1 2 4 -7 5
17 Belenenses 7 0 4 3 -5 4
18 Famalicao 8 0 3 5 -6 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Porto Pacos Ferreira
Mehdi Taremi 🟨
16′
17′
🟨 Hélder Ferreira
19′
Nuno Santos 0–1
Wendell 🟨
30′
32′
🟨 Vitorino Antunes
40′
🟨 Denílson
1–1 L. Díaz
44′
Half-time 2–1
2–1 Wendell
52′
Pepe 🟨
54′
64′
🔁 J. Delgado
↦ Hélder Ferreira
Sérgio Oliveira 🔁
↦ Evanilson
76′
Pepê Aquino 🔁
↦ Francisco Conceição
76′
77′
🔁 João Pedro
↦ Zé Uilton
78′
🔁 Matchoi Djaló
↦ Nuno Santos
80′
🟨 Juan Delgado
Wilson Manafá 🔁
↦ Wendell
83′
84′
🟨 Marco Baixinho
Toni Martínez 🔁
↦ L. Díaz
88′
90′
🔁 A. Ibrahim
↦ Luíz Carlos
Mehdi Taremi 🟨
95′
Mehdi Taremi 🟥
95′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Porto

4-4-2
99 Diogo Costa G
3 Pepe D
5 Iván Marcano D
22 Wendell D
8 M. Uribe M
20 Vitinha M
9 M. Taremi F
7 L. Díaz M
23 João Mário D
30 Evanilson F
10 Francisco Conceição M
Bench (9)
27 Sérgio Oliveira
11 Pepê Aquino
18 Wilson Manafá
29 Toni Martínez
1 A. Marchesín
17 J. Corona
50 Fábio Vieira
16 M. Grujić
19 C. Mbemba

Coach: Sérgio Conceição

Pacos Ferreira

4-4-2
13 André Ferreira G
5 Antunes D
2 Marco Baixinho D
6 Maracás D
22 Luíz Carlos M
46 S. Eustáquio M
77 Nuno Santos F
9 Zé Uilton D
10 Denílson F
7 Hélder Ferreira M
23 Lucas Silva M
Bench (9)
15 J. Delgado
45 João Pedro
16 Matchoi Djaló
8 A. Ibrahim
98 I. Vekič
32 Flávio Ramos
20 Luís Bastos
26 Rui Pires
3 Nuno Lima

Coach: Jorge Simão

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,24
U
5,94
B
11,86
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,64
U2,5
2,26
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Manuel Mota · 73 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,6 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,36 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.