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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hélder Malheiro

Porto

S S S S U

3–0

Full-time

Arouca

S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

2,8

1,5

Conceded

0,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,7

0,7

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

59% Possession 41%

15 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Porto 4. · Arouca 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Estoril	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	Porto	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Boavista	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	Portimonense	3	2	0	1	+3	6
7	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Gil Vicente	3	2	0	1	+2	6
9	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	+3	4
10	Maritimo	4	1	1	2	-2	4
11	Vizela	4	1	1	2	-6	4
12	Tondela	3	1	0	2	-1	3
13	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Arouca	3	1	0	2	-3	3
15	Moreirense	4	0	2	2	-2	2
16	Belenenses	4	0	1	3	-5	1
17	Santa Clara	3	0	1	2	-5	1
18	Famalicao	3	0	0	3	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Boavista	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Vizela	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Estoril	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+3	3
6	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+1	3
9	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Tondela	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Arouca	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Santa Clara	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Belenenses	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Maritimo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	Famalicao	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Sp Braga	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Moreirense	2	0	0	2	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Estoril	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Portimonense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Sp Braga	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Porto	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Moreirense	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	Guimaraes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Boavista	2	0	1	1	-3	1
12	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-2	0
14	Famalicao	2	0	0	2	-3	0
15	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-3	0
16	Belenenses	2	0	0	2	-4	0
17	Santa Clara	2	0	0	2	-5	0
18	Vizela	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.