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Primeira Liga

Referee: David Silva

Arouca

T S S T T

2–1

Full-time

Famalicao

S S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Famalicao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,5

Scored

0,0

0,5

Conceded

2,0

Goal diff per game

-2,0

-1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

50% Possession 50%

22 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 5

7 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 9

0 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 22

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 18. · Famalicao 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Gil Vicente	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Porto	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Estoril	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Tondela	2	1	0	1	+2	3
7	Sp Braga	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Boavista	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Vizela	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Guimaraes	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Santa Clara	2	0	1	1	-3	1
16	Belenenses	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Famalicao	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Arouca	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Tondela	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Vizela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Santa Clara	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Estoril	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Belenenses	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Famalicao	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Sp Braga	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	3
2	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Maritimo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Porto	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Guimaraes	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Tondela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
12	Belenenses	1	0	0	1	-2	0
13	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-2	0
14	Famalicao	1	0	0	1	-2	0
15	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-3	0
16	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-3	0
17	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-3	0
18	Santa Clara	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.