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Primeira Liga
Referee: Carlos Xistra
Sp Lisbon
T S U U U
3–0
Full-time
Arouca
T U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Arouca
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,5
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,5
2,0
Scored
2,0
0,7
Conceded
1,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,5
-0,7
This season — Primeira Liga · 9/9 matches
Win Ø 39%
56%
22%
Points per game
2,0
0,9
Over 2.5 Ø 39%
56%
22%
Both score Ø 45%
56%
33%
Average goals
3,0
2,0
Scored
1,9
0,7
Conceded
1,1
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,8
-0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

69% Possession 31%
12 Shots 1
4 Shots on target 0
2 Blocked shots 1
0 Goalkeeper saves 1
11 Corners 0
3 Offside 0
18 Free kicks against 12
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Sp Lisbon 5. · Arouca 17.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Benfica 10 8 2 0 +18 26
2 Porto 10 6 3 1 +14 21
3 Guimaraes 10 6 2 2 +7 20
4 Sp Braga 9 6 2 1 +7 20
5 Sp Lisbon 9 5 3 1 +7 18
6 Chaves 10 3 5 2 +1 14
7 Vitoria Setubal 10 3 4 3 +0 13
8 Boavista 10 3 4 3 -1 13
9 Belenenses 10 3 3 4 -4 12
10 Rio Ave 10 3 2 5 -4 11
11 Estoril 10 3 2 5 -4 11
12 Feirense 10 3 2 5 -8 11
13 Pacos Ferreira 10 2 4 4 -3 10
14 Maritimo 9 3 1 5 -4 10
15 Nacional 10 2 2 6 -6 8
16 Moreirense 10 2 2 6 -6 8
17 Arouca 9 2 2 5 -6 8
18 Tondela 10 1 3 6 -8 6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Sp Lisbon Arouca
1–0 B. Dost
S. Coates
9′
Gelson Martins 🟨
15′
27′
🟨 Adilson Goiano
Adrien Silva 🟨
44′
45′
🟨 Vitor Costa
Half-time 1–0
50′
🟨 Vitor Costa
50′
🟥 Vitor Costa
Joel Campbell 🟨
53′
55′
🔁 Gêgê
↦ Artur Moreira
2–0 J. Campbell
Adrien Silva
55′
62′
🔁 Jorginho Intima
↦ Walter González
3–0 B. Dost
J. Campbell
68′
L. Castaignos 🔁
↦ B. Ruiz
76′
Bruno César 🔁
↦ Adrien Silva
79′
82′
🔁 Nuno Coelho
↦ Adilson Goiano
Elias 🔁
↦ Gelson Martins
87′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Sp Lisbon

4-4-2
1 Rui Patrício G
21 João Pereira D
31 M. Zeegelaar D
13 S. Coates D
23 Adrien Silva M
14 William Carvalho M
35 Rúben Semedo D
10 B. Ruiz M
28 B. Dost F
7 J. Campbell F
77 Gelson Martins M
Bench (7)
20 L. Castaignos
11 Bruno César
22 Elias
15 Paulo Oliveira
34 Beto
99 A. Ruiz
2 E. Schelotto

Coach: Jorge Jesus

Arouca

4-2-3-1
1 Rafael Bracalli G
5 Anderson Luis D
4 J. Velázquez D
33 Jubal D
6 Vitor D
7 Artur Moreira M
26 André Santos M
8 Adilson Goiano M
10 Nuno Valente M
12 Mateus M
95 Walter González F
Bench (7)
14 Gêgê
11 Jorginho Intima
66 Nuno Coelho
3 Hugo Basto
13 Rui Sacramento
50 Crivellaro
99 Bruno Lopes

Coach: Lito Vidigal

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Carlos Xistra · 87 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
27,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.