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Premier League

Referee: M Atkinson

Chelsea

S U S S T

3–1

Full-time

Southampton

U U U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,3

1,8

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

0,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,3

1,8

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

0,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

62% Possession 38%

20 Shots 6

9 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Chelsea 5. · Southampton 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	6	4	2	0	+11	14
2	Man United	7	4	2	1	+8	14
3	Everton	7	4	2	1	+5	14
4	Man City	6	4	1	1	+11	13
5	Chelsea	6	4	1	1	+10	13
6	Brighton	6	4	1	1	+3	13
7	West Ham	6	3	2	1	+5	11
8	Aston Villa	6	3	1	2	+2	10
9	Brentford	6	2	3	1	+3	9
10	Arsenal	6	3	0	3	-5	9
11	Tottenham	6	3	0	3	-5	9
12	Watford	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Leicester	6	2	1	3	-3	7
14	Wolves	6	2	0	4	-2	6
15	Crystal Palace	6	1	3	2	-3	6
16	Southampton	6	0	4	2	-3	4
17	Newcastle	6	0	3	3	-7	3
18	Leeds	6	0	3	3	-8	3
19	Burnley	6	0	2	4	-6	2
20	Norwich	6	0	0	6	-14	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Everton	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Man City	3	2	1	0	+10	7
3	Man United	4	2	1	1	+6	7
4	Liverpool	3	2	1	0	+5	7
5	Aston Villa	3	2	1	0	+5	7
6	Chelsea	3	2	0	1	+5	6
7	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Tottenham	3	2	0	1	-1	6
10	Crystal Palace	3	1	2	0	+3	5
11	West Ham	3	1	1	1	+2	4
12	Brentford	3	1	1	1	+1	4
13	Leicester	3	1	1	1	+0	4
14	Watford	3	1	1	1	-1	4
15	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-1	2
16	Newcastle	3	0	2	1	-2	2
17	Burnley	3	0	1	2	-2	1
18	Leeds	3	0	1	2	-4	1
19	Wolves	3	0	0	3	-4	0
20	Norwich	3	0	0	3	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	3	2	1	0	+6	7
2	Chelsea	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	West Ham	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Man United	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	Brighton	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	Wolves	3	2	0	1	+2	6
7	Man City	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Brentford	3	1	2	0	+2	5
9	Everton	4	1	2	1	-1	5
10	Watford	3	1	0	2	-1	3
11	Leicester	3	1	0	2	-3	3
12	Aston Villa	3	1	0	2	-3	3
13	Tottenham	3	1	0	2	-4	3
14	Arsenal	3	1	0	2	-6	3
15	Southampton	3	0	2	1	-2	2
16	Leeds	3	0	2	1	-4	2
17	Burnley	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Newcastle	3	0	1	2	-5	1
19	Crystal Palace	3	0	1	2	-6	1
20	Norwich	3	0	0	3	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.