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Primeira Liga

Referee: Vitor Ferreira

Nacional

T T T S T

0–1

Full-time

Moreirense

U U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,3

1,8

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 12/13 matches

Win Ø 24%

25%

23%

Points per game

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 32%

33%

31%

Both score Ø 40%

42%

38%

Average goals

2,2

1,9

Scored

0,9

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

50% Possession 50%

18 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 6

2 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 19

4 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 12. · Moreirense 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	11	3	0	+22	36
2	Porto	14	10	2	2	+19	32
3	Benfica	14	10	2	2	+15	32
4	Sp Braga	14	9	0	5	+8	27
5	Pacos Ferreira	14	7	4	3	+7	25
6	Guimaraes	12	6	2	4	+3	20
7	Santa Clara	13	4	3	6	-4	15
8	Rio Ave	14	3	6	5	-6	15
9	Tondela	14	4	3	7	-10	15
10	Maritimo	13	4	2	7	-3	14
11	Moreirense	13	3	5	5	-5	14
12	Nacional	12	3	4	5	-4	13
13	Gil Vicente	13	3	4	6	-5	13
14	Farense	13	3	3	7	-4	12
15	Belenenses	13	2	6	5	-5	12
16	Portimonense	13	3	2	8	-8	11
17	Famalicao	13	2	5	6	-10	11
18	Boavista	14	1	8	5	-10	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	8	6	1	1	+10	19
2	Benfica	7	6	0	1	+8	18
3	Sp Lisbon	7	5	2	0	+10	17
4	Pacos Ferreira	7	5	1	1	+6	16
5	Sp Braga	6	5	0	1	+6	15
6	Tondela	8	4	2	2	+0	14
7	Moreirense	7	3	3	1	+3	12
8	Farense	7	3	2	2	+3	11
9	Nacional	7	2	3	2	-1	9
10	Rio Ave	6	2	2	2	+0	8
11	Portimonense	6	2	2	2	+0	8
12	Gil Vicente	6	2	2	2	+0	8
13	Maritimo	6	2	2	2	+0	8
14	Belenenses	7	1	3	3	-3	6
15	Guimaraes	6	2	0	4	-5	6
16	Famalicao	7	1	3	3	-7	6
17	Santa Clara	6	1	2	3	-4	5
18	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+12	19
2	Guimaraes	6	4	2	0	+8	14
3	Benfica	7	4	2	1	+7	14
4	Porto	6	4	1	1	+9	13
5	Sp Braga	8	4	0	4	+2	12
6	Santa Clara	7	3	1	3	+0	10
7	Pacos Ferreira	7	2	3	2	+1	9
8	Rio Ave	8	1	4	3	-6	7
9	Belenenses	6	1	3	2	-2	6
10	Maritimo	7	2	0	5	-3	6
11	Boavista	8	0	6	2	-4	6
12	Famalicao	6	1	2	3	-3	5
13	Gil Vicente	7	1	2	4	-5	5
14	Nacional	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	Portimonense	7	1	0	6	-8	3
16	Moreirense	6	0	2	4	-8	2
17	Farense	6	0	1	5	-7	1
18	Tondela	6	0	1	5	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.