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Primeira Liga

Referee: João Carlos Bento

Nacional

U S T T T

2–0

Full-time

Tondela

T S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 20%

20%

Points per game

1,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 45%

50%

40%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

0,9

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

53% Possession 47%

10 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 6

4 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 2

The table before the match Nacional 13. · Tondela 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	8	2	0	+17	26
2	Benfica	10	8	0	2	+12	24
3	Porto	10	7	1	2	+12	22
4	Sp Braga	10	7	0	3	+8	21
5	Guimaraes	10	6	1	3	+4	19
6	Pacos Ferreira	10	4	3	3	+1	15
7	Santa Clara	10	4	1	5	-3	13
8	Belenenses	10	2	5	3	-2	11
9	Famalicao	10	2	5	3	-5	11
10	Rio Ave	10	2	5	3	-5	11
11	Moreirense	10	2	4	4	-3	10
12	Maritimo	10	3	1	6	-4	10
13	Nacional	10	2	4	4	-4	10
14	Gil Vicente	10	2	3	5	-4	9
15	Boavista	10	1	6	3	-5	9
16	Tondela	10	2	3	5	-9	9
17	Farense	10	2	2	6	-4	8
18	Portimonense	10	2	2	6	-6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	6	5	0	1	+7	15
2	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+8	13
3	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+5	12
4	Sp Braga	5	4	0	1	+5	12
5	Pacos Ferreira	5	3	1	1	+2	10
6	Moreirense	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Tondela	6	2	2	2	-3	8
8	Farense	5	2	1	2	+1	7
9	Gil Vicente	5	2	1	2	+0	7
10	Maritimo	5	2	1	2	+0	7
11	Belenenses	5	1	3	1	+0	6
12	Nacional	5	1	3	1	-1	6
13	Famalicao	5	1	3	1	-3	6
14	Guimaraes	5	2	0	3	-4	6
15	Rio Ave	4	1	2	1	-1	5
16	Portimonense	5	1	2	2	-2	5
17	Boavista	4	1	1	2	-3	4
18	Santa Clara	5	1	1	3	-4	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+9	13
2	Guimaraes	5	4	1	0	+8	13
3	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+7	12
4	Sp Braga	5	3	0	2	+3	9
5	Santa Clara	5	3	0	2	+1	9
6	Porto	4	2	1	1	+5	7
7	Rio Ave	6	1	3	2	-4	6
8	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	2	2	-1	5
9	Boavista	6	0	5	1	-2	5
10	Famalicao	5	1	2	2	-2	5
11	Belenenses	5	1	2	2	-2	5
12	Nacional	5	1	1	3	-3	4
13	Maritimo	5	1	0	4	-4	3
14	Portimonense	5	1	0	4	-4	3
15	Gil Vicente	5	0	2	3	-4	2
16	Moreirense	5	0	2	3	-5	2
17	Farense	5	0	1	4	-5	1
18	Tondela	4	0	1	3	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.