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Primeira Liga

Referee: Miguel Nogueira

Tondela

S T T U T

1–0

Full-time

Famalicao

S T U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Famalicao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,8

1,8

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 18%

18%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

36%

55%

Both score Ø 50%

36%

64%

Average goals

2,6

2,9

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

37% Possession 63%

9 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 7

0 Blocked shots 5

7 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 3

15 Free kicks against 13

4 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 17. · Famalicao 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	12	10	2	0	+20	32
2	Benfica	11	9	0	2	+13	27
3	Porto	11	8	1	2	+13	25
4	Sp Braga	12	8	0	4	+9	24
5	Guimaraes	11	6	1	4	+3	19
6	Pacos Ferreira	11	4	4	3	+1	16
7	Maritimo	11	4	1	6	-2	13
8	Nacional	11	3	4	4	-2	13
9	Moreirense	11	3	4	4	-2	13
10	Santa Clara	11	4	1	6	-4	13
11	Gil Vicente	11	3	3	5	-3	12
12	Belenenses	11	2	5	4	-3	11
13	Famalicao	11	2	5	4	-6	11
14	Rio Ave	11	2	5	4	-7	11
15	Farense	11	2	3	6	-4	9
16	Boavista	11	1	6	4	-8	9
17	Tondela	11	2	3	6	-11	9
18	Portimonense	11	2	2	7	-7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+10	16
2	Porto	6	5	0	1	+7	15
3	Benfica	6	5	0	1	+6	15
4	Sp Braga	5	4	0	1	+5	12
5	Moreirense	6	3	2	1	+3	11
6	Pacos Ferreira	5	3	1	1	+2	10
7	Nacional	6	2	3	1	+1	9
8	Farense	6	2	2	2	+1	8
9	Tondela	6	2	2	2	-3	8
10	Gil Vicente	5	2	1	2	+0	7
11	Maritimo	5	2	1	2	+0	7
12	Belenenses	6	1	3	2	-1	6
13	Famalicao	6	1	3	2	-4	6
14	Guimaraes	6	2	0	4	-5	6
15	Portimonense	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Rio Ave	5	1	2	2	-3	5
17	Santa Clara	5	1	1	3	-4	4
18	Boavista	5	1	1	3	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	6	5	1	0	+10	16
2	Guimaraes	5	4	1	0	+8	13
3	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+7	12
4	Sp Braga	7	4	0	3	+4	12
5	Porto	5	3	1	1	+6	10
6	Santa Clara	6	3	0	3	+0	9
7	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	3	2	-1	6
8	Maritimo	6	2	0	4	-2	6
9	Rio Ave	6	1	3	2	-4	6
10	Boavista	6	0	5	1	-2	5
11	Famalicao	5	1	2	2	-2	5
12	Belenenses	5	1	2	2	-2	5
13	Gil Vicente	6	1	2	3	-3	5
14	Nacional	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	Portimonense	6	1	0	5	-5	3
16	Moreirense	5	0	2	3	-5	2
17	Farense	5	0	1	4	-5	1
18	Tondela	5	0	1	4	-8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.