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Primeira Liga

Referee: Gustavo Correia

Guimaraes

S S S T U

3–1

Full-time

Nacional

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

3,3

2,0

Scored

1,8

0,5

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 12/13 matches

Win Ø 37%

50%

23%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

42%

31%

Both score Ø 32%

25%

38%

Average goals

2,3

2,1

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

47% Possession 53%

10 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 3

5 Offside 0

25 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Guimaraes 6. · Nacional 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	14	11	3	0	+22	36
2	Porto	14	10	2	2	+19	32
3	Benfica	14	10	2	2	+15	32
4	Sp Braga	14	9	0	5	+8	27
5	Pacos Ferreira	14	7	4	3	+7	25
6	Guimaraes	12	6	2	4	+3	20
7	Maritimo	14	5	2	7	-2	17
8	Moreirense	14	4	5	5	-4	17
9	Santa Clara	14	4	3	7	-5	15
10	Rio Ave	14	3	6	5	-6	15
11	Tondela	14	4	3	7	-10	15
12	Portimonense	14	4	2	8	-7	14
13	Famalicao	14	3	5	6	-9	14
14	Nacional	13	3	4	6	-5	13
15	Gil Vicente	14	3	4	7	-6	13
16	Farense	13	3	3	7	-4	12
17	Belenenses	14	2	6	6	-6	12
18	Boavista	14	1	8	5	-10	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	8	6	1	1	+10	19
2	Benfica	7	6	0	1	+8	18
3	Sp Lisbon	7	5	2	0	+10	17
4	Pacos Ferreira	7	5	1	1	+6	16
5	Sp Braga	6	5	0	1	+6	15
6	Tondela	8	4	2	2	+0	14
7	Moreirense	7	3	3	1	+3	12
8	Farense	7	3	2	2	+3	11
9	Portimonense	7	3	2	2	+1	11
10	Nacional	8	2	3	3	-2	9
11	Rio Ave	6	2	2	2	+0	8
12	Maritimo	6	2	2	2	+0	8
13	Gil Vicente	7	2	2	3	-1	8
14	Belenenses	7	1	3	3	-3	6
15	Guimaraes	6	2	0	4	-5	6
16	Famalicao	7	1	3	3	-7	6
17	Santa Clara	7	1	2	4	-5	5
18	Boavista	6	1	2	3	-6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+12	19
2	Guimaraes	6	4	2	0	+8	14
3	Benfica	7	4	2	1	+7	14
4	Porto	6	4	1	1	+9	13
5	Sp Braga	8	4	0	4	+2	12
6	Santa Clara	7	3	1	3	+0	10
7	Pacos Ferreira	7	2	3	2	+1	9
8	Maritimo	8	3	0	5	-2	9
9	Famalicao	7	2	2	3	-2	8
10	Rio Ave	8	1	4	3	-6	7
11	Belenenses	7	1	3	3	-3	6
12	Boavista	8	0	6	2	-4	6
13	Gil Vicente	7	1	2	4	-5	5
14	Moreirense	7	1	2	4	-7	5
15	Nacional	5	1	1	3	-3	4
16	Portimonense	7	1	0	6	-8	3
17	Farense	6	0	1	5	-7	1
18	Tondela	6	0	1	5	-10	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.