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Eredivisie

Referee: M van den Kerkhof

Heracles

S T T S T

1–2

Full-time

Nijmegen

S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heracles Nijmegen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

2,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 33/32 matches

Win Ø 31%

27%

34%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

55%

59%

Both score Ø 56%

64%

47%

Average goals

3,1

2,9

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,37 xG 1,37

52% Possession 48%

20 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 6

9 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heracles 14. · Nijmegen 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	33	24	4	5	+62	+47.2	76
2	Ajax	33	23	6	4	+33	+31.7	75
3	Feyenoord	33	20	8	5	+40	+27.3	68
4	Utrecht	33	18	9	6	+17	+5.4	63
5	Twente	31	14	9	8	+14	+13.1	51
6	Go Ahead Eagles	33	14	9	10	+4	+7.5	51
7	AZ Alkmaar	31	14	8	9	+12	+14.7	50
8	Nijmegen	32	11	7	14	+6	+1.7	40
9	Heerenveen	32	11	7	14	-9	-1.9	40
10	For Sittard	33	11	7	15	-17	-8.1	40
11	Sparta Rotterdam	33	9	12	12	-2	-1.6	39
12	Groningen	33	10	9	14	-11	-8.2	39
13	Zwolle	33	9	11	13	-10	-19.7	38
14	Heracles	33	9	11	13	-20	-17.6	38
15	NAC Breda	33	8	8	17	-24	-18.4	32
16	Willem II	33	6	7	20	-22	-30.5	25
17	Waalwijk	33	5	7	21	-32	-25.8	22
18	Almere City	33	4	9	20	-41	-16.5	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	17	13	3	1	+40	+30.1	42
2	Ajax	16	12	3	1	+22	+23.4	39
3	Feyenoord	17	11	3	3	+20	+17.1	36
4	Go Ahead Eagles	17	10	4	3	+10	+13.4	34
5	Heerenveen	16	9	6	1	+13	+8.8	33
6	Twente	16	9	4	3	+13	+12.4	31
7	Groningen	17	8	6	3	+13	+6.5	30
8	Utrecht	17	9	3	5	+4	+8.2	30
9	Heracles	16	6	7	3	+3	+3.3	25
10	Nijmegen	17	6	6	5	+12	+9.8	24
11	For Sittard	16	8	0	8	-7	+2.5	24
12	NAC Breda	16	6	5	5	-1	-0.1	23
13	Zwolle	16	6	4	6	+2	-3.4	22
14	AZ Alkmaar	14	6	3	5	+4	+13.2	21
15	Sparta Rotterdam	16	4	6	6	-2	+4.8	18
16	Waalwijk	16	4	3	9	-8	-6.5	15
17	Willem II	17	3	3	11	-7	-12.2	12
18	Almere City	17	2	5	10	-23	-0.5	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ajax	17	11	3	3	+11	+8.3	36
2	PSV Eindhoven	16	11	1	4	+22	+17.1	34
3	Utrecht	16	9	6	1	+13	-2.8	33
4	Feyenoord	16	9	5	2	+20	+10.2	32
5	AZ Alkmaar	17	8	5	4	+8	+1.4	29
6	Sparta Rotterdam	17	5	6	6	+0	-6.3	21
7	Twente	15	5	5	5	+1	+0.7	20
8	Go Ahead Eagles	16	4	5	7	-6	-6.0	17
9	Nijmegen	15	5	1	9	-6	-8.1	16
10	For Sittard	17	3	7	7	-10	-10.6	16
11	Zwolle	17	3	7	7	-12	-16.3	16
12	Willem II	16	3	4	9	-15	-18.3	13
13	Heracles	17	3	4	10	-23	-20.9	13
14	Almere City	16	2	4	10	-18	-16.1	10
15	NAC Breda	17	2	3	12	-23	-18.4	9
16	Groningen	16	2	3	11	-24	-14.7	9
17	Heerenveen	16	2	1	13	-22	-10.7	7
18	Waalwijk	17	1	4	12	-24	-19.4	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.