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Taça de Portugal

Fayal

0–5

Full-time

CD Olivais e Moscavide

T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Peniche	1	1	0	0	+8	3
2	Sacavenense	1	1	0	0	+7	3
3	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	1	0	0	+6	3
4	Ovarense	1	1	0	0	+6	3
5	Atlético Malveira	1	1	0	0	+6	3
6	Trofense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Caldas	1	1	0	0	+4	3
8	Vianense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	O Elvas	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Moncarapachense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
11	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	Naval 1893	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Salgueiros	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Gouveia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Vila Meã	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	Correlhã	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Brito	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Oriental Lisboa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Machico	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Comércio Indústria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Monção	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Castrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Vila Caíz	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Espinho	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	AD Marco 09	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Celoricense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Nazarenos	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Samora Correir	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Charneca Caparica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Tirsense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Lagoa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	AR São Martinho	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Carregal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Academica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Juventude Évora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Vilaverdense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Quarteirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Cinfães	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Celeirós	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Sourense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Pontassolense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Aparecida GO	1	0	0	1	-2	0
62	Leça	1	0	0	1	-2	0
63	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Valenciano	1	0	0	1	-3	0
65	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
66	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
67	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
68	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
69	Varzim	1	0	0	1	-4	0
70	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
71	SC Celoricense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
72	Urzelinense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
73	Lajense	2	0	0	2	-7	0
74	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-7	0
75	Ferreira Zêzere	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Peniche	1	1	0	0	+8	3
2	Sacavenense	1	1	0	0	+7	3
3	Ovarense	1	1	0	0	+6	3
4	Trofense	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Caldas	1	1	0	0	+4	3
6	Moncarapachense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Naval 1893	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Salgueiros	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Gouveia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Correlhã	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Oriental Lisboa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Comércio Indústria	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Castrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	CF Os Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Vila Caíz	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Celoricense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Nazarenos	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Marinhense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
23	Charneca Caparica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Tirsense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	AR São Martinho	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Carregal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Academica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Vilaverdense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Cinfães	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Aparecida GO	1	0	0	1	-2	0
34	Valenciano	1	0	0	1	-3	0
35	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
36	Urzelinense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
37	Lajense	2	0	0	2	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	1	0	0	+6	3
2	Atlético Malveira	1	1	0	0	+6	3
3	Vianense	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	O Elvas	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Vila Meã	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Brito	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Machico	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Anadia	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Os Marialvas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Monção	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	1º Dezembro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Espinho	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	AD Marco 09	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Samora Correir	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Lagoa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Juventude Évora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Quarteirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Celeirós	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Sourense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Pontassolense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	Leça	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
31	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
32	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
33	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
34	Varzim	1	0	0	1	-4	0
35	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
36	SC Celoricense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
37	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-7	0
38	Ferreira Zêzere	1	0	0	1	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

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B ✓

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Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

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U1,5

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O2,5 ✓

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U2,5

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O3,5 ✓

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U3,5

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Both teams to score

BLS ja

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BLS nei ✓

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Recent matches

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The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Odds comparison

Recent matches