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Serie A

Referee: Matteo Marcenaro

Milan

T S S T S

1–0

Full-time

Bologna

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Bologna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,5

1,0

Scored

1,5

0,5

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,00 xG 0,17

39% Possession 61%

14 Shots 5

3 Shots on target 0

4 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 11. · Bologna 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.5	9
2	Juventus	3	3	0	0	+4	+1.9	9
3	Udinese	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.1	7
4	Cremonese	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.3	6
5	Roma	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.7	6
6	Atalanta	3	1	2	0	+3	+3.1	5
7	Cagliari	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.7	4
8	Torino	3	1	1	1	-4	-1.9	4
9	Inter	3	1	0	2	+3	+1.7	3
10	Lazio	3	1	0	2	+1	+1.7	3
11	Milan	2	1	0	1	+1	+3.3	3
12	Como	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.7	3
13	Bologna	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.6	3
14	Sassuolo	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.4	3
15	Fiorentina	3	0	2	1	-2	-1.1	2
16	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
17	Pisa	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.0	1
18	Parma	3	0	1	2	-4	-1.0	1
19	Verona	2	0	1	1	-4	-3.4	1
20	Lecce	3	0	1	2	-5	-3.3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.5	6
2	Atalanta	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.0	4
3	Cagliari	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.7	4
4	Inter	2	1	0	1	+4	+1.4	3
5	Lazio	1	1	0	0	+4	+3.2	3
6	Como	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.1	3
7	Cremonese	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
8	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
9	Bologna	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
10	Roma	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.5	3
11	Sassuolo	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.4	3
12	Parma	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
13	Udinese	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
14	Torino	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
15	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
16	Milan	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.7	0
17	Fiorentina	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
18	Lecce	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
19	Pisa	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.5	6
2	Udinese	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.3	6
3	Milan	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.6	3
4	Cremonese	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.7	3
5	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
6	Roma	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
7	Torino	2	1	0	1	-4	-1.1	3
8	Fiorentina	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.6	2
9	Atalanta	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
10	Pisa	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
11	Lecce	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.8	1
12	Verona	2	0	1	1	-4	-3.4	1
13	Inter	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
14	Sassuolo	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
15	Cagliari	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
16	Bologna	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
17	Como	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
18	Lazio	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.5	0
19	Parma	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.