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Primeira Liga

Referee: Ricardo Baixinho

Arouca

S S T U U

0–2

Full-time

Casa Pia

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

4,2

2,7

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

2,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

75%

25%

Both score Ø 38%

75%

Average goals

4,5

2,5

Scored

1,8

0,5

Conceded

2,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,27 xG 1,49

66% Possession 34%

8 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 6

2 Offside 4

18 Free kicks against 21

2 Yellow cards 7

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 11. · Casa Pia 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	5	5	0	0	+11	+7.4	15
2	Sp Lisbon	5	4	0	1	+11	+7.7	12
3	Moreirense	5	4	0	1	+4	+2.4	12
4	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+5	+4.5	10
5	Famalicao	5	3	1	1	+4	-1.1	10
6	Sp Braga	4	2	2	0	+6	+3.2	8
7	Gil Vicente	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.5	7
8	Guimaraes	5	2	1	2	-2	-1.5	7
9	Estoril	5	1	2	2	+0	-2.5	5
10	Santa Clara	5	1	2	2	-3	-0.4	5
11	Arouca	4	1	2	1	-4	-3.4	5
12	Alverca	5	1	1	3	-4	-1.5	4
13	Nacional	5	1	1	3	-4	-3.5	4
14	Rio Ave	4	0	3	1	-2	-0.3	3
15	Estrela	5	0	3	2	-3	-0.8	3
16	Casa Pia	4	1	0	3	-6	-5.2	3
17	AVS	5	0	1	4	-7	-3.2	1
18	Tondela	5	0	1	4	-8	-2.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	3	3	0	0	+8	+6.4	9
2	Moreirense	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.8	9
3	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.1	4
4	Benfica	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.2	4
5	Arouca	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.9	4
6	Famalicao	3	1	1	1	+2	-1.4	4
7	Guimaraes	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
8	Estoril	3	1	1	1	+1	-0.9	4
9	Sp Lisbon	2	1	0	1	+5	+2.0	3
10	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.2	3
11	Alverca	3	1	0	2	-3	-0.0	3
12	Rio Ave	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.5	2
13	Tondela	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.7	1
14	Santa Clara	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.0	1
15	Estrela	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.6	1
16	AVS	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.6	0
17	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.0	0
18	Nacional	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.6	9
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.0	6
3	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.3	6
4	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.4	6
5	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.1	4
6	Gil Vicente	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.7	4
7	Nacional	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.8	4
8	Santa Clara	3	1	1	1	-2	-0.4	4
9	Moreirense	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.6	3
10	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	-2	-2.2	3
11	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	-3	-2.3	3
12	Estrela	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.2	2
13	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.6	1
14	Alverca	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.4	1
15	Rio Ave	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.2	1
16	AVS	3	0	1	2	-4	-2.6	1
17	Arouca	2	0	1	1	-6	-2.5	1
18	Tondela	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.