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Eredivisie

Referee: A Lindhout

Heracles

T U T S T

5–0

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heracles AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,7

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

0,7

2,5

Conceded

1,5

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 41%

26%

56%

Points per game

1,0

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

70%

59%

Both score Ø 52%

56%

48%

Average goals

3,4

2,9

Scored

1,2

2,0

Conceded

2,2

0,9

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

3,27 xG 1,54

35% Possession 65%

21 Shots 18

9 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heracles 14. · AZ Alkmaar 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	28	24	3	1	+68	+57.6	75
2	Feyenoord	27	20	5	2	+47	+52.6	65
3	Twente	27	17	5	5	+25	+17.2	56
4	AZ Alkmaar	27	15	7	5	+32	+17.5	52
5	Ajax	27	12	8	7	+12	+10.4	44
6	Nijmegen	27	11	9	7	+12	-13.8	42
7	Go Ahead Eagles	26	11	6	9	+6	-4.0	39
8	Sparta Rotterdam	28	10	7	11	+2	-6.7	37
9	Utrecht	27	9	9	9	-4	-7.2	36
10	For Sittard	28	9	8	11	-15	+3.8	35
11	Heerenveen	27	9	5	13	-7	-4.2	32
12	Almere City	27	7	10	10	-17	-12.8	31
13	Zwolle	27	7	7	13	-15	-11.5	28
14	Heracles	27	7	5	15	-26	-22.6	26
15	Waalwijk	27	6	5	16	-19	-11.9	23
16	Excelsior	28	4	10	14	-23	-15.1	22
17	Vitesse	28	4	5	19	-37	-22.0	17
18	Volendam	27	3	6	18	-41	-27.4	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	13	12	1	0	+29	+29.9	37
2	Twente	14	11	1	2	+14	+13.0	34
3	Feyenoord	14	10	3	1	+26	+29.2	33
4	AZ Alkmaar	14	9	2	3	+21	+15.5	29
5	Nijmegen	13	8	2	3	+14	+2.5	26
6	Ajax	13	7	4	2	+14	+9.0	25
7	For Sittard	14	7	4	3	+8	+14.4	25
8	Go Ahead Eagles	14	7	3	4	+13	+5.6	24
9	Heerenveen	13	6	2	5	+5	+6.0	20
10	Utrecht	13	5	5	3	+1	+0.5	20
11	Heracles	13	5	3	5	-8	-7.6	18
12	Sparta Rotterdam	14	4	5	5	-1	+2.1	17
13	Waalwijk	14	4	3	7	-5	-3.3	15
14	Almere City	14	3	6	5	-8	-4.6	15
15	Excelsior	14	2	7	5	-6	-1.5	13
16	Zwolle	14	3	3	8	-14	-0.0	12
17	Vitesse	14	1	5	8	-13	-5.3	8
18	Volendam	13	2	1	10	-25	-8.1	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	15	12	2	1	+39	+27.7	38
2	Feyenoord	13	10	2	1	+21	+23.5	32
3	AZ Alkmaar	13	6	5	2	+11	+2.0	23
4	Twente	13	6	4	3	+11	+4.2	22
5	Sparta Rotterdam	14	6	2	6	+3	-8.7	20
6	Ajax	14	5	4	5	-2	+1.4	19
7	Zwolle	13	4	4	5	-1	-11.5	16
8	Nijmegen	14	3	7	4	-2	-16.3	16
9	Utrecht	14	4	4	6	-5	-7.7	16
10	Almere City	13	4	4	5	-9	-8.2	16
11	Go Ahead Eagles	12	4	3	5	-7	-9.6	15
12	Heerenveen	14	3	3	8	-12	-10.2	12
13	For Sittard	14	2	4	8	-23	-10.7	10
14	Excelsior	14	2	3	9	-17	-13.6	9
15	Vitesse	14	3	0	11	-24	-16.6	9
16	Waalwijk	13	2	2	9	-14	-8.6	8
17	Volendam	14	1	5	8	-16	-19.3	8
18	Heracles	14	2	2	10	-18	-15.0	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.