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Eredivisie

Referee: E van de Graaf

Excelsior

T U S T T

3–0

Full-time

Heerenveen

S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Heerenveen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,8

2,7

Scored

1,5

Conceded

2,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 27%

18%

35%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 76%

76%

Both score Ø 68%

82%

53%

Average goals

3,7

3,4

Scored

1,6

1,5

Conceded

2,1

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,89 xG 0,41

41% Possession 59%

14 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 1

0 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 15. · Heerenveen 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	17	17	0	0	+52	+40.8	51
2	Feyenoord	17	12	3	2	+34	+34.5	39
3	Twente	17	11	4	2	+16	+12.9	37
4	AZ Alkmaar	17	10	3	4	+20	+11.2	33
5	Ajax	17	8	4	5	+6	+5.1	28
6	Sparta Rotterdam	17	7	4	6	+2	-6.2	25
7	Go Ahead Eagles	16	6	4	6	+2	-7.0	22
8	Nijmegen	16	5	6	5	+3	-13.4	21
9	Heerenveen	17	6	2	9	-6	-1.4	20
10	Zwolle	17	5	4	8	-5	-5.5	19
11	For Sittard	17	5	4	8	-13	-1.3	19
12	Almere City	17	5	4	8	-15	-6.7	19
13	Utrecht	17	4	6	7	-9	-10.5	18
14	Heracles	17	5	3	9	-18	-11.7	18
15	Excelsior	17	3	8	6	-7	-11.0	17
16	Waalwijk	17	4	2	11	-14	-4.5	14
17	Vitesse	17	3	3	11	-25	-13.1	12
18	Volendam	17	3	2	12	-23	-12.3	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	9	9	0	0	+24	+23.5	27
2	Twente	9	7	1	1	+7	+6.3	22
3	Feyenoord	9	6	2	1	+18	+15.9	20
4	AZ Alkmaar	9	6	1	2	+14	+11.2	19
5	For Sittard	9	5	2	2	+4	+7.3	17
6	Go Ahead Eagles	9	5	1	3	+10	+4.6	16
7	Ajax	8	5	1	2	+9	+7.2	16
8	Heerenveen	8	4	1	3	+5	+6.8	13
9	Nijmegen	8	3	2	3	+5	+0.4	11
10	Heracles	8	3	1	4	-9	-6.5	10
11	Sparta Rotterdam	8	2	3	3	-3	-0.7	9
12	Excelsior	8	1	5	2	-3	-1.9	8
13	Zwolle	9	2	2	5	-6	+0.2	8
14	Almere City	8	2	2	4	-7	-2.4	8
15	Utrecht	8	1	4	3	-7	-5.1	7
16	Waalwijk	9	2	1	6	-8	-3.4	7
17	Volendam	8	2	1	5	-9	+0.3	7
18	Vitesse	8	1	3	4	-6	-2.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	8	0	0	+28	+17.2	24
2	Feyenoord	8	6	1	1	+16	+18.6	19
3	Sparta Rotterdam	9	5	1	3	+5	-5.5	16
4	Twente	8	4	3	1	+9	+6.5	15
5	AZ Alkmaar	8	4	2	2	+6	-0.0	14
6	Ajax	9	3	3	3	-3	-2.1	12
7	Zwolle	8	3	2	3	+1	-5.7	11
8	Utrecht	9	3	2	4	-2	-5.4	11
9	Almere City	9	3	2	4	-8	-4.3	11
10	Nijmegen	8	2	4	2	-2	-13.8	10
11	Excelsior	9	2	3	4	-4	-9.1	9
12	Heracles	9	2	2	5	-9	-5.2	8
13	Waalwijk	8	2	1	5	-6	-1.0	7
14	Heerenveen	9	2	1	6	-11	-8.2	7
15	Go Ahead Eagles	7	1	3	3	-8	-11.5	6
16	Vitesse	9	2	0	7	-19	-10.4	6
17	Volendam	9	1	1	7	-14	-12.6	4
18	For Sittard	8	0	2	6	-17	-8.6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.