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Ligue 1

Referee: W Delajod

Paris SG

S S T S U

1–3

Full-time

Nice

U T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paris SG Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

2,2

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 64%

80%

47%

Points per game

2,6

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

70%

60%

Both score Ø 75%

77%

73%

Average goals

3,7

3,1

Scored

2,8

1,9

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

3,16 xG 0,96

76% Possession 24%

32 Shots 7

13 Shots on target 3

12 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 12

17 Corners 0

0 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paris SG 1. · Nice 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	30	24	6	0	+55	+52.4	78
2	Marseille	30	17	4	9	+20	+14.0	55
3	Monaco	30	16	6	8	+22	+35.8	54
4	Lille	30	15	8	7	+15	+9.5	53
5	Nice	30	14	9	7	+18	+20.3	51
6	Lyon	30	15	6	9	+17	+10.5	51
7	Strasbourg	30	14	9	7	+11	-7.5	51
8	Lens	30	13	6	11	+2	+7.8	45
9	Brest	30	13	5	12	-1	-9.0	44
10	Rennes	30	12	2	16	+5	+5.8	38
11	Auxerre	30	10	8	12	-4	-13.9	38
12	Toulouse	30	9	7	14	-1	+11.8	34
13	Reims	30	8	8	14	-10	-20.1	32
14	Nantes	30	7	10	13	-15	-18.9	31
15	Angers	30	8	6	16	-19	-18.3	30
16	Le Havre	30	8	3	19	-31	-19.8	27
17	St Etienne	30	7	6	17	-35	-33.8	27
18	Montpellier	30	4	3	23	-49	-26.6	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	13	2	0	+29	+28.5	41
2	Monaco	16	11	3	2	+20	+24.6	36
3	Lille	15	10	3	2	+12	+3.7	33
4	Nice	15	9	4	2	+16	+16.3	31
5	Lyon	14	9	2	3	+12	+8.7	29
6	Strasbourg	14	8	5	1	+11	-1.2	29
7	Marseille	15	8	4	3	+13	+16.1	28
8	Brest	15	8	3	4	+7	-0.9	27
9	Auxerre	15	7	5	3	+8	+1.2	26
10	Rennes	16	8	1	7	+6	+5.6	25
11	St Etienne	15	6	3	6	-6	-6.7	21
12	Lens	15	6	2	7	-3	+7.9	20
13	Nantes	14	4	5	5	-1	-0.3	17
14	Toulouse	15	4	4	7	-3	+3.4	16
15	Reims	16	4	4	8	-6	-7.3	16
16	Angers	15	4	2	9	-14	-11.7	14
17	Montpellier	15	3	3	9	-21	-5.7	12
18	Le Havre	15	3	1	11	-24	-10.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	11	4	0	+26	+23.9	37
2	Marseille	15	9	0	6	+7	-2.1	27
3	Lens	15	7	4	4	+5	-0.1	25
4	Lyon	16	6	4	6	+5	+1.8	22
5	Strasbourg	16	6	4	6	+0	-6.3	22
6	Lille	15	5	5	5	+3	+5.8	20
7	Nice	15	5	5	5	+2	+4.0	20
8	Toulouse	15	5	3	7	+2	+8.4	18
9	Monaco	14	5	3	6	+2	+11.2	18
10	Le Havre	15	5	2	8	-7	-9.6	17
11	Brest	15	5	2	8	-8	-8.1	17
12	Reims	14	4	4	6	-4	-12.7	16
13	Angers	15	4	4	7	-5	-6.7	16
14	Nantes	16	3	5	8	-14	-18.6	14
15	Rennes	14	4	1	9	-1	+0.2	13
16	Auxerre	15	3	3	9	-12	-15.1	12
17	St Etienne	15	1	3	11	-29	-27.1	6
18	Montpellier	15	1	0	14	-28	-20.9	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.