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Ligue 1
Referee: E Wattellier
Nice
U T T S U
1–0
Full-time
Lille
U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Lille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
1,0
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
33%
17%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,2
2,3
Scored
1,3
2,0
Conceded
0,8
0,3
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,7
This season — Ligue 1 · 19/19 matches
Win Ø 43%
32%
53%
Points per game
1,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 48%
37%
58%
Both score Ø 63%
58%
68%
Average goals
2,2
3,2
Scored
1,2
1,8
Conceded
1,1
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,1
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,63 xG 1,97
44% Possession 56%
12 Shots 16
6 Shots on target 7
2 Blocked shots 4
7 Goalkeeper saves 5
5 Corners 7
0 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 11
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Nice 10. · Lille 7.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 19 15 2 2 +34 47
2 Lens 20 13 6 1 +19 +1.7 45
3 Marseille 20 13 4 3 +23 -0.1 43
4 Monaco 20 11 5 4 +16 +0.1 38
5 Rennes 20 11 4 5 +15 +0.6 37
6 Lorient 20 10 5 5 +3 -0.6 35
7 Lille 19 10 4 5 +10 34
8 Clermont 19 8 4 7 -3 28
9 Lyon 19 7 4 8 +5 25
10 Nice 19 6 7 6 +2 25
11 Reims 19 5 10 4 -2 25
12 Toulouse 19 6 5 8 -5 23
13 Nantes 19 4 9 6 -3 21
14 Troyes 20 4 7 9 -10 -1.7 19
15 Montpellier 19 5 2 12 -12 17
16 Strasbourg 19 2 9 8 -10 15
17 Brest 19 3 6 10 -15 15
18 Ajaccio 19 4 3 12 -18 15
19 Auxerre 19 3 4 12 -25 13
20 Angers 19 2 2 15 -24 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Nice Lille
Dante 🟨
16′
1–0 G. Laborde
B. Bouanani
34′
Half-time 1–0
62′
🔁 J. Martin
↦ L. Yoro
B. Brahimi 🔁
↦ B. Bouanani
67′
P. Rosario 🔁
↦ A. Ramsey
67′
Hicham Boudaoui 🟨
68′
Khéphren Thuram 🟨
72′
Y. Atal 🔁
↦ J. Lotomba
77′
R. Barkley 🔁
↦ S. Diop
78′
Y. Ndayishimiye 🔁
↦ H. Boudaoui
78′
78′
🔁 E. Zhegrova
↦ J. David
85′
🟨 Angel Gomes
94′
🟨 Tiago Djaló
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Nice

4-3-3
1 K. Schmeichel G
23 J. Lotomba D
25 J. Todibo D
4 Dante D
26 M. Bard D
16 A. Ramsey M
28 H. Boudaoui M
19 K. Thuram M
35 B. Bouanani F
24 G. Laborde F
10 S. Diop F
Bench (9)
14 B. Brahimi
8 P. Rosario
20 Y. Atal
11 R. Barkley
55 Y. Ndayishimiye
21 A. Beka Beka
33 A. Mendy
77 T. Boulhendi
42 M. Viti

Coach: D. Digard

Lille

4-2-3-1
30 L. Chevalier G
18 B. Diakité D
6 José Fonte D
3 Tiago Djaló D
31 Ismaily D
15 L. Yoro M
20 A. Gomes M
22 T. Weah M
9 J. David M
10 R. Cabella M
27 M. Bayo F
Bench (8)
8 J. Martin
23 E. Zhegrova
33 I. Ferrah
4 Alexsandro Ribeiro
26 A. Virginius
39 M. Makhabe
25 B. Costil
16 A. Jakubech

Coach: Paulo Fonseca

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,89
U
3,32
B
2,50
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,06
U2,5 ✓
1,78
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

E Wattellier · 152 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.