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Ligue 1

Referee: T Léonard

Lille

T T S S U

1–2

Full-time

Le Havre

T T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Le Havre

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,7

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

3,8

2,5

Scored

2,5

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 33%

45%

20%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

60%

40%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,52 xG 2,04

67% Possession 33%

14 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 10

16 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 5. · Le Havre 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	21	16	5	0	+38	+35.9	53
2	Marseille	20	12	4	4	+18	+6.4	40
3	Nice	21	10	7	4	+15	+12.6	37
4	Monaco	21	11	4	6	+9	+19.8	37
5	Lille	20	9	8	3	+13	+7.7	35
6	Lens	21	9	6	6	+5	+9.0	33
7	Brest	21	10	1	10	-3	-10.7	31
8	Lyon	20	8	6	6	+6	+4.2	30
9	Strasbourg	20	7	6	7	+1	-7.8	27
10	Toulouse	20	7	5	8	-1	+8.4	26
11	Auxerre	20	6	5	9	-6	-11.6	23
12	Angers	20	6	5	9	-7	-5.6	23
13	Reims	20	5	7	8	-3	-8.3	22
14	Nantes	21	4	9	8	-8	-8.5	21
15	Rennes	20	6	2	12	-3	-0.9	20
16	St Etienne	20	5	3	12	-24	-19.4	18
17	Montpellier	20	4	3	13	-26	-16.2	15
18	Le Havre	20	4	2	14	-24	-14.9	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	11	9	2	0	+22	+19.8	29
2	Nice	10	7	3	0	+16	+9.4	24
3	Monaco	11	7	2	2	+7	+14.0	23
4	Lille	10	6	3	1	+8	+1.0	21
5	Rennes	11	6	1	4	+10	+5.7	19
6	Auxerre	10	5	4	1	+7	-0.6	19
7	Brest	10	6	1	3	+6	-1.8	19
8	Strasbourg	9	5	3	1	+6	-0.1	18
9	Lyon	9	5	2	2	+5	+4.0	17
10	Marseille	10	4	4	2	+3	+5.9	16
11	St Etienne	9	5	1	3	+2	+1.1	16
12	Toulouse	11	4	3	4	+1	+5.6	15
13	Lens	10	4	2	4	+0	+6.7	14
14	Montpellier	11	3	3	5	-10	-4.7	12
15	Angers	10	3	2	5	-5	-5.2	11
16	Nantes	10	2	4	4	-3	-1.3	10
17	Reims	11	2	4	5	-5	-5.1	10
18	Le Havre	10	2	0	8	-16	-9.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	7	3	0	+16	+16.2	24
2	Marseille	10	8	0	2	+15	+0.5	24
3	Lens	11	5	4	2	+5	+2.3	19
4	Lille	10	3	5	2	+5	+6.7	14
5	Monaco	10	4	2	4	+2	+5.8	14
6	Lyon	11	3	4	4	+1	+0.2	13
7	Nice	11	3	4	4	-1	+3.1	13
8	Reims	9	3	3	3	+2	-3.2	12
9	Angers	10	3	3	4	-2	-0.4	12
10	Brest	11	4	0	7	-9	-8.9	12
11	Toulouse	9	3	2	4	-2	+2.8	11
12	Nantes	11	2	5	4	-5	-7.2	11
13	Strasbourg	11	2	3	6	-5	-7.7	9
14	Le Havre	10	2	2	6	-8	-5.2	8
15	Auxerre	10	1	1	8	-13	-11.0	4
16	Montpellier	9	1	0	8	-16	-11.5	3
17	St Etienne	11	0	2	9	-26	-20.6	2
18	Rennes	9	0	1	8	-13	-6.7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.