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Eredivisie

Referee: J Kooij

AZ Alkmaar

T T U T S

1–2

Full-time

Willem II

S U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AZ Alkmaar Willem II

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,0

1,7

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 10/11 matches

Win Ø 34%

40%

27%

Points per game

1,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

60%

27%

Both score Ø 43%

50%

36%

Average goals

2,4

2,0

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

2,01 xG 0,82

69% Possession 31%

30 Shots 7

3 Shots on target 3

14 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

10 Corners 1

2 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match AZ Alkmaar 10. · Willem II 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	11	0	1	+31	+16.5	33
2	Utrecht	11	9	1	1	+9	-0.6	28
3	Ajax	11	8	2	1	+14	+13.5	26
4	Feyenoord	12	7	4	1	+15	+11.8	25
5	Twente	12	6	4	2	+13	+13.0	22
6	For Sittard	12	5	2	5	-3	+1.2	17
7	Nijmegen	12	5	1	6	+9	+1.4	16
8	Go Ahead Eagles	12	4	3	5	-5	+7.9	15
9	NAC Breda	12	5	0	7	-9	-5.2	15
10	AZ Alkmaar	10	4	2	4	+2	+3.7	14
11	Heerenveen	11	4	2	5	-2	-0.6	14
12	Willem II	11	3	3	5	+0	-9.0	12
13	Groningen	12	3	3	6	-7	-8.1	12
14	Zwolle	12	3	3	6	-8	-11.7	12
15	Heracles	12	3	3	6	-11	-11.4	12
16	Sparta Rotterdam	12	2	5	5	-6	-0.2	11
17	Almere City	12	1	3	8	-21	-7.9	6
18	Waalwijk	12	1	1	10	-21	-14.1	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	5	5	0	0	+16	+7.7	15
2	Ajax	5	5	0	0	+10	+8.4	15
3	Utrecht	6	5	0	1	+3	+2.4	15
4	Heerenveen	6	4	2	0	+8	+4.9	14
5	Twente	6	3	3	0	+8	+9.2	12
6	For Sittard	6	4	0	2	+3	+2.8	12
7	NAC Breda	6	4	0	2	+2	+0.7	12
8	Nijmegen	6	3	1	2	+8	+3.5	10
9	Feyenoord	5	3	1	1	+2	+5.2	10
10	Zwolle	6	3	0	3	+0	-1.5	9
11	Groningen	6	2	2	2	+2	-1.8	8
12	Heracles	6	2	2	2	+0	-1.9	8
13	Go Ahead Eagles	6	2	2	2	-1	+7.0	8
14	Willem II	6	2	1	3	+1	-3.4	7
15	AZ Alkmaar	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.8	4
16	Sparta Rotterdam	6	0	4	2	-4	+3.0	4
17	Waalwijk	7	1	1	5	-8	-5.9	4
18	Almere City	7	1	1	5	-15	-2.8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	6	0	1	+15	+8.8	18
2	Feyenoord	7	4	3	0	+13	+6.6	15
3	Utrecht	5	4	1	0	+6	-3.0	13
4	Ajax	6	3	2	1	+4	+5.0	11
5	Twente	6	3	1	2	+5	+3.8	10
6	AZ Alkmaar	6	3	1	2	+3	+1.9	10
7	Sparta Rotterdam	6	2	1	3	-2	-3.2	7
8	Go Ahead Eagles	6	2	1	3	-4	+0.8	7
9	Nijmegen	6	2	0	4	+1	-2.2	6
10	Willem II	5	1	2	2	-1	-5.6	5
11	For Sittard	6	1	2	3	-6	-1.6	5
12	Groningen	6	1	1	4	-9	-6.3	4
13	Heracles	6	1	1	4	-11	-9.5	4
14	Zwolle	6	0	3	3	-8	-10.2	3
15	NAC Breda	6	1	0	5	-11	-5.9	3
16	Almere City	5	0	2	3	-6	-5.1	2
17	Heerenveen	5	0	0	5	-10	-5.5	0
18	Waalwijk	5	0	0	5	-13	-8.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.