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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Nott'm Forest

T U S S S

1–3

Full-time

Newcastle

U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,5

1,3

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

0,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 45%

50%

40%

Points per game

1,9

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

30%

40%

Both score Ø 55%

50%

60%

Average goals

2,1

2,0

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,63 xG 1,70

44% Possession 56%

9 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 5

3 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 3. · Newcastle 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	11	9	1	1	+15	+11.2	28
2	Man City	11	7	2	2	+9	+8.9	23
3	Nott'm Forest	10	5	4	1	+7	+4.3	19
4	Brighton	11	5	4	2	+4	-1.9	19
5	Chelsea	10	5	3	2	+8	+4.7	18
6	Arsenal	10	5	3	2	+6	+5.1	18
7	Fulham	11	5	3	3	+3	+4.4	18
8	Aston Villa	11	5	3	3	+0	+3.3	18
9	Tottenham	10	5	1	4	+11	+8.6	16
10	Brentford	11	5	1	5	+0	-1.6	16
11	Bournemouth	11	4	3	4	+0	+4.2	15
12	Newcastle	10	4	3	3	+0	+0.6	15
13	Man United	10	3	3	4	-3	+0.3	12
14	West Ham	11	3	3	5	-6	-3.0	12
15	Leicester	10	2	4	4	-4	-9.2	10
16	Everton	11	2	4	5	-7	-3.8	10
17	Crystal Palace	11	1	4	6	-7	-2.4	7
18	Wolves	11	1	3	7	-11	-8.4	6
19	Ipswich	10	0	5	5	-11	-14.5	5
20	Southampton	11	1	1	9	-14	-10.9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brentford	6	5	1	0	+7	+5.9	16
2	Liverpool	6	5	0	1	+8	+6.0	15
3	Man City	5	4	1	0	+6	+7.5	13
4	Tottenham	5	4	0	1	+11	+5.8	12
5	Brighton	6	3	3	0	+3	+2.0	12
6	Arsenal	5	3	2	0	+6	+7.6	11
7	Bournemouth	5	3	1	1	+4	+4.0	10
8	Fulham	5	3	1	1	+2	+3.6	10
9	Newcastle	5	3	1	1	+2	+0.1	10
10	Nott'm Forest	5	2	2	1	+3	+2.7	8
11	Chelsea	5	2	2	1	+1	+6.5	8
12	Aston Villa	5	2	2	1	+1	+4.3	8
13	West Ham	6	2	1	3	-2	+0.3	7
14	Man United	5	2	1	2	-4	-0.7	7
15	Leicester	5	1	2	2	-2	-4.0	5
16	Everton	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.1	5
17	Crystal Palace	6	1	2	3	-4	-0.4	5
18	Southampton	5	1	1	3	-4	-4.9	4
19	Wolves	6	1	1	4	-5	-2.9	4
20	Ipswich	5	0	3	2	-4	-3.4	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+7	+5.2	13
2	Nott'm Forest	5	3	2	0	+4	+1.6	11
3	Chelsea	5	3	1	1	+7	-1.8	10
4	Man City	6	3	1	2	+3	+1.5	10
5	Aston Villa	6	3	1	2	-1	-1.0	10
6	Fulham	6	2	2	2	+1	+0.8	8
7	Brighton	5	2	1	2	+1	-3.9	7
8	Arsenal	5	2	1	2	+0	-2.5	7
9	Man United	5	1	2	2	+1	+1.0	5
10	Leicester	5	1	2	2	-2	-5.2	5
11	Newcastle	5	1	2	2	-2	+0.5	5
12	Bournemouth	6	1	2	3	-4	+0.2	5
13	Everton	6	1	2	3	-4	-0.6	5
14	West Ham	5	1	2	2	-4	-3.3	5
15	Tottenham	5	1	1	3	+0	+2.7	4
16	Crystal Palace	5	0	2	3	-3	-2.0	2
17	Wolves	5	0	2	3	-6	-5.4	2
18	Ipswich	5	0	2	3	-7	-11.1	2
19	Brentford	5	0	0	5	-7	-7.5	0
20	Southampton	6	0	0	6	-10	-6.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.